Apex Drive Academy Business Plan — Appendix D: Risk Register
Detailed risk register scoring likelihood and impact across operational, regulatory, financial and safety risks with mitigations.
Appendix D: Risk Register
Jump to section
- Overview & contents
- i. Important Notice and Basis of Preparation
- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. Market and Opportunity
- 3. Regulatory Framework
- 4. The Business Model
- 5. SWOT and Competitive Position
- 6. The Capital Efficiency Question
- 7. Route to Market
- 8. Management and Governance
- 9. Financial Plan
- 10. Break-Even and Debt Service
- 11. Investment Analysis
- 12. Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
- 13. Risk Analysis
- 14. Implementation Roadmap
- 15. Key Performance Indicators
- 16. Key Assumptions
- 17. Conclusion and Recommendation
- A. Appendix A: Consolidated Financial Summary
- B. Appendix B: Capital and Fleet Schedules
- C. Appendix C: Funding and Debt Schedules
- D. Appendix D: Risk Register
- E. Appendix E: Glossary
|
Risk |
Assessment |
Mitigation and residual position |
|---|---|---|
|
Failure to obtain or retain TETA accreditation |
Moderate likelihood, severe impact |
Accreditation is the Year 1 milestone and precedes fleet expansion; a qualified quality assurance lead is appointed before application; internal moderation runs continuously |
|
Learnership demand does not materialise |
Moderate likelihood, severe impact |
Two anchor employer agreements concluded before the second EC unit is acquired; retail and professional segments sized to cover overhead without corporate revenue |
|
Grade A instructor scarcity |
High likelihood, high impact |
Above-market retention package, a bonded training programme growing Grade C instructors toward Grade B, and cross-scheduling so no single instructor is a single point of failure |
|
Vehicle accident or write-off |
High likelihood over five years, moderate impact |
Comprehensive insurance with dual-control cover, tracking, documented incident protocols, and a spare vehicle in the fleet from Year 3 |
|
DLTC access, test availability and integrity |
High likelihood, moderate impact |
Relationships across multiple DLTCs rather than dependence on one; NaTIS booking discipline; a documented refusal to participate in payment for test outcomes, which is both unlawful and an existential reputational risk |
|
Fuel price inflation |
High likelihood, low to moderate impact |
Fuel is roughly 13% of retail direct cost and 22% of heavy-vehicle direct cost; a 25% rise costs under R100 000 of Year 5 profit |
|
Debt service tightness in Year 2 |
High likelihood |
Twelve-month capital moratorium on each fleet finance tranche, or a promoter support undertaking; fleet expansion deferrable within one quarter if coverage falls below 1.25 times |
|
Reputational damage from poor pass rates |
Moderate likelihood, high impact |
Pass rate tracked by instructor and by DLTC yard and reported monthly; instructors below threshold retrained or replaced |
D.1 Pre-committed trigger points
|
Point |
Trigger |
Committed response |
|---|---|---|
|
Month 6 |
TETA application not submitted |
Halt fleet expansion beyond five vehicles. The corporate business is the investment case and accreditation is its precondition |
|
Month 12 |
Retail contribution below half of overhead |
Review instructor utilisation and package pricing before adding vehicles. Retail must carry the base |
|
Year 2 |
Accreditation not granted |
Do not acquire the first EC unit. A financed truck earning retail rates cannot cover itself |
|
Year 2 |
Fewer than two anchor employer agreements signed |
Defer the second EC unit. Contracted volume precedes capacity, not the other way round |
|
Any year |
Debt service cover below 1.25 times |
Defer the following year’s fleet addition and approach the financier before the covenant is tested |
|
Any month |
First-time pass rate below 55% for any instructor |
Retrain or replace. Pass rate is the leading indicator of retail reputation and it moves before revenue does |