Lichtenburg Nut Company Business Plan — Appendix A: Detailed Assumption Register

The full assumption register behind the model, stated line by line for independent testing.

Section 35 of 37

Appendix A: Detailed Assumption Register

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Table 83. Detailed assumption register

Assumption

Year 1 value

Escalation

Source or basis

Bulk and industrial list price

R52.00/kg

4.4%

Import parity after the 20% duty, less a domestic discount

Private label list price

R58.00/kg

4.4%

Estimated commodity private label supply at R52 to R55, plus an assurance premium

Own brand blended list price

R76.00/kg

4.4%

Observed local brand retail band of R39 to R55 per 400 g, blended with a premium natural tier

Snack nut list price

R95.00/kg

4.4%

Mainstream snack nut retail pricing

Trade discount, bulk

1.5%

n/a

Settlement discount

Trade discount, private label

2.5%

n/a

Settlement and volume rebate

Trade discount, own brand

11.0%

n/a

Settlement, rebate, co-operative advertising and promotional participation

Trade discount, snack nuts

12.0%

n/a

Higher promotional intensity in snacking

In-shell groundnut price

R14,900/t

4.8%

Contracted grower price consistent with recent producer price levels

Shelling recovery

70%

n/a

Industry standard kernel yield

Own shelling cost

R0.82/kg

4.5%

Labour, energy and consumables

Bought kernel price

R24,800/t

4.8%

Third-party shelled kernel delivered

Own-shelled share of kernels

75%

n/a

25% spot allocation retained for flexibility

Intake rejection rate

4%

n/a

Quality and aflatoxin downgrade, recovered at 45% of value

By-product credit

R1.15/kg

4.4%

Shell biomass energy offset and off-grade kernel sales

Energy and utilities in cost of sales

R3.10/kg

4.5%

Roasting is the dominant load

Ingredients

R1.75/kg

4.5%

Oil, sugar, salt, stabiliser

Quality and laboratory consumables

R0.55/kg

4.5%

In-house testing programme

Inbound freight

R0.45/kg

4.5%

Grower to plant, average 90 km

Distribution, bulk

R1.60/kg

4.5%

Full loads to industrial customers

Distribution, packed

R2.40/kg

4.5%

Lichtenburg to national distribution centres via a Gauteng cross-dock

Executive salary, average

R780,000

5.5%

Fully loaded

Supervisory and professional salary, average

R420,000

5.5%

Fully loaded

Operator and general salary, average

R168,000

5.5%

Fully loaded, above sectoral determination

Property rental

R75/m² per month

4.5%

Lichtenburg industrial warehousing

Plant maintenance

3.0% of plant in service

4.5%

Applied only to commissioned assets

Own brand marketing

6% of own brand net revenue

n/a

Plus a fixed brand build allocation

Snack nut marketing

7% of snack net revenue

n/a