Lichtenburg Nut Company Business Plan — Appendix A: Detailed Assumption Register
The full assumption register behind the model, stated line by line for independent testing.
Section 35 of 37
Appendix A: Detailed Assumption Register
Jump to section
- 0. Basis of Preparation and Important Notice
- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. Investment Thesis
- 3. The Company
- 4. Problem, Customer Need and Value Proposition
- 5. Products and Services
- 6. Industry Analysis
- 7. Market Analysis
- 8. Customer Analysis
- 9. Competitive Landscape
- 10. Business Model
- 11. Go-to-Market Strategy
- 12. Operating Model
- 13. Raw Material Supply and Contract Farming
- 14. Quality, Food Safety and Aflatoxin Control
- 15. Management and Organisation
- 16. Strategic Plan
- 17. SWOT Analysis and Strategic Implications
- 18. Risk Analysis
- 19. ESG and Development Impact
- 20. Implementation Roadmap
- 21. Financial Model and Assumptions
- 22. Projected Income Statement
- 23. Projected Balance Sheet
- 24. Projected Cash Flow
- 25. Capital Expenditure
- 26. Working Capital
- 27. Funding Requirement and Structure
- 28. Debt Serviceability
- 29. Break-even Analysis
- 30. Scenario and Sensitivity Analysis
- 31. Valuation and Investment Returns
- 32. Key Performance Indicators and Management Dashboard
- 33. Conclusion and Recommendation
- A. Appendix A: Detailed Assumption Register
- B. Appendix B: Ten-Year Financial Summary
- C. Appendix C: Glossary and Sources
Table 83. Detailed assumption register
|
Assumption |
Year 1 value |
Escalation |
Source or basis |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Bulk and industrial list price |
R52.00/kg |
4.4% |
Import parity after the 20% duty, less a domestic discount |
|
Private label list price |
R58.00/kg |
4.4% |
Estimated commodity private label supply at R52 to R55, plus an assurance premium |
|
Own brand blended list price |
R76.00/kg |
4.4% |
Observed local brand retail band of R39 to R55 per 400 g, blended with a premium natural tier |
|
Snack nut list price |
R95.00/kg |
4.4% |
Mainstream snack nut retail pricing |
|
Trade discount, bulk |
1.5% |
n/a |
Settlement discount |
|
Trade discount, private label |
2.5% |
n/a |
Settlement and volume rebate |
|
Trade discount, own brand |
11.0% |
n/a |
Settlement, rebate, co-operative advertising and promotional participation |
|
Trade discount, snack nuts |
12.0% |
n/a |
Higher promotional intensity in snacking |
|
In-shell groundnut price |
R14,900/t |
4.8% |
Contracted grower price consistent with recent producer price levels |
|
Shelling recovery |
70% |
n/a |
Industry standard kernel yield |
|
Own shelling cost |
R0.82/kg |
4.5% |
Labour, energy and consumables |
|
Bought kernel price |
R24,800/t |
4.8% |
Third-party shelled kernel delivered |
|
Own-shelled share of kernels |
75% |
n/a |
25% spot allocation retained for flexibility |
|
Intake rejection rate |
4% |
n/a |
Quality and aflatoxin downgrade, recovered at 45% of value |
|
By-product credit |
R1.15/kg |
4.4% |
Shell biomass energy offset and off-grade kernel sales |
|
Energy and utilities in cost of sales |
R3.10/kg |
4.5% |
Roasting is the dominant load |
|
Ingredients |
R1.75/kg |
4.5% |
Oil, sugar, salt, stabiliser |
|
Quality and laboratory consumables |
R0.55/kg |
4.5% |
In-house testing programme |
|
Inbound freight |
R0.45/kg |
4.5% |
Grower to plant, average 90 km |
|
Distribution, bulk |
R1.60/kg |
4.5% |
Full loads to industrial customers |
|
Distribution, packed |
R2.40/kg |
4.5% |
Lichtenburg to national distribution centres via a Gauteng cross-dock |
|
Executive salary, average |
R780,000 |
5.5% |
Fully loaded |
|
Supervisory and professional salary, average |
R420,000 |
5.5% |
Fully loaded |
|
Operator and general salary, average |
R168,000 |
5.5% |
Fully loaded, above sectoral determination |
|
Property rental |
R75/m² per month |
4.5% |
Lichtenburg industrial warehousing |
|
Plant maintenance |
3.0% of plant in service |
4.5% |
Applied only to commissioned assets |
|
Own brand marketing |
6% of own brand net revenue |
n/a |
Plus a fixed brand build allocation |
|
Snack nut marketing |
7% of snack net revenue |
n/a |