Lichtenburg Nut Company Business Plan — Customer Analysis

Retail chains, wholesalers and industrial buyers, what each pays and what each demands of a supplier.

Section 9 of 37

Customer Analysis

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8.1 Customer segments and buying behaviour

Table 21. Customer segments, buying behaviour and decision criteria

Segment	Who they are	How they buy	Decision criteria, ranked	Terms
National grocery retailers	Four groups controlling the majority of formal grocery, each with an own-label programme	Competitive tender on an 18 to 36 month cycle; range reviews twice a year	1. Food safety audit outcome 2. Landed cost 3. Supply reliability 4. Service level 5. B-BBEE scorecard	60 to 65 days; settlement discount; rebates and listing fees
Second-tier and regional brand owners	Brand owners without manufacturing capacity, including regional and export-focused brands	Contract manufacturing agreements, typically annual with volume commitments	1. Capability to hold specification 2. Cost per kilogram 3. Flexibility on run size 4. Confidentiality	45 to 60 days
Industrial food manufacturers	Bakeries, confectioners, sauce and marinade manufacturers, protein bar producers	Annual supply agreements with monthly call-off; sample approval before first order	1. Particle size and oil separation consistency 2. Aflatoxin certificate 3. Price 4. Pack format	45 days
Institutional and nutrition programme buyers	School nutrition programme converters, therapeutic food manufacturers, mine and correctional catering	Tender, often annual, with documentary compliance requirements	1. Documented testing and traceability 2. Tender price 3. Delivery capability 4. Local content	45 to 60 days, occasionally longer
Wholesale and independent retail	Cash and carry, buying groups, spaza supply chains in North West, Free State and Gauteng	Cash or short credit; price-led	1. Price per unit 2. Availability 3. Pack size suited to the consumer’s daily spend	Cash to 30 days
Household consumers	77% to 80% of South African households	Repeat purchase at a low ticket price; brand loyalty is high but price-sensitive at the value end	1. Price 2. Familiarity 3. Taste 4. Provenance and clean label, for a growing minority	n/a

8.2 Customer concentration and the risk it creates

The plan deliberately builds toward a diversified customer base, but it cannot start with one. Year 1 depends heavily on the anchor private label contract, and this is the point of maximum fragility in the whole venture.

Table 22. Customer concentration over the plan period

Measure	FY2029	FY2030	FY2031	FY2032	FY2033
Largest customer as a share of net revenue	48%	38%	31%	27%	24%
Top three customers as a share of net revenue	79%	66%	56%	49%	44%
Number of active accounts above 50 tonnes a year	3	6	9	12	14
Own brand as a share of net revenue	0%	14%	20%	24%	26%

Concentration percentages are planning targets derived from the volume build in Section 7.3, not model outputs. Own brand share is a model output.