Lichtenburg Nut Company Business Plan — Projected Income Statement
Six-year income statement: net revenue to R213.8m and EBITDA to R25.3m, with profit only from FY2032.
Section 23 of 37
Projected Income Statement
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- 0. Basis of Preparation and Important Notice
- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. Investment Thesis
- 3. The Company
- 4. Problem, Customer Need and Value Proposition
- 5. Products and Services
- 6. Industry Analysis
- 7. Market Analysis
- 8. Customer Analysis
- 9. Competitive Landscape
- 10. Business Model
- 11. Go-to-Market Strategy
- 12. Operating Model
- 13. Raw Material Supply and Contract Farming
- 14. Quality, Food Safety and Aflatoxin Control
- 15. Management and Organisation
- 16. Strategic Plan
- 17. SWOT Analysis and Strategic Implications
- 18. Risk Analysis
- 19. ESG and Development Impact
- 20. Implementation Roadmap
- 21. Financial Model and Assumptions
- 22. Projected Income Statement
- 23. Projected Balance Sheet
- 24. Projected Cash Flow
- 25. Capital Expenditure
- 26. Working Capital
- 27. Funding Requirement and Structure
- 28. Debt Serviceability
- 29. Break-even Analysis
- 30. Scenario and Sensitivity Analysis
- 31. Valuation and Investment Returns
- 32. Key Performance Indicators and Management Dashboard
- 33. Conclusion and Recommendation
- A. Appendix A: Detailed Assumption Register
- B. Appendix B: Ten-Year Financial Summary
- C. Appendix C: Glossary and Sources
Table 50. Projected income statement, FY2028 to FY2033
|
R million unless stated |
FY2028 |
FY2029 |
FY2030 |
FY2031 |
FY2032 |
FY2033 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Volume (tonnes) |
0 |
1,180 |
1,840 |
2,340 |
2,730 |
3,000 |
|
Certified bulk and industrial |
0.0 |
23.6 |
32.1 |
35.7 |
38.5 |
40.2 |
|
Retail private label |
0.0 |
40.7 |
60.2 |
74.0 |
85.6 |
95.4 |
|
Own brand (Tsala) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
15.5 |
29.5 |
43.9 |
55.4 |
|
Snack nuts |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
9.1 |
16.2 |
22.8 |
|
Net revenue |
0.0 |
64.3 |
107.8 |
148.3 |
184.1 |
213.8 |
|
Groundnut kernels |
(0.0) |
(27.6) |
(45.1) |
(60.4) |
(74.1) |
(85.5) |
|
By-product credit |
0.0 |
1.4 |
2.2 |
2.9 |
3.6 |
4.1 |
|
Quality rejects and downgrades |
(0.0) |
(0.6) |
(1.0) |
(1.3) |
(1.6) |
(1.8) |
|
Packaging |
(0.0) |
(5.6) |
(10.0) |
(14.6) |
(18.7) |
(22.2) |
|
Ingredients, energy, quality and freight |
(0.0) |
(7.1) |
(11.5) |
(15.2) |
(18.5) |
(21.2) |
|
Factory payroll |
(3.0) |
(9.5) |
(11.7) |
(14.4) |
(16.7) |
(19.6) |
|
Fixed factory overhead |
(1.4) |
(8.3) |
(9.0) |
(10.8) |
(11.6) |
(12.3) |
|
Cost of sales |
(4.4) |
(57.3) |
(86.1) |
(113.8) |
(137.7) |
(158.6) |
|
Gross profit |
-4.4 |
6.9 |
21.8 |
34.5 |
46.4 |
55.2 |
|
Administration payroll |
(1.3) |
(4.1) |
(5.0) |
(6.2) |
(7.2) |
(8.4) |
|
Distribution |
(0.0) |
(2.5) |
(4.1) |
(5.6) |
(6.9) |
(8.0) |
|
Marketing and trade activation |
(0.0) |
(0.0) |
(2.8) |
(3.7) |
(4.8) |
(5.9) |
|
Other operating expenditure |
(2.2) |
(5.3) |
(7.5) |
(7.0) |
(7.3) |
(7.7) |
|
Total operating expenditure |
(3.5) |
(11.8) |
(19.5) |
(22.5) |
(26.1) |
(29.9) |
|
EBITDA |
-7.9 |
-4.9 |
2.3 |
12.0 |
20.3 |
25.3 |
|
Government grant amortisation |
0.0 |
0.5 |
1.2 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
|
Depreciation and amortisation |
(0.6) |
(9.9) |
(9.9) |
(10.8) |
(11.7) |
(11.4) |
|
EBIT |
-8.6 |
-14.3 |
-6.4 |
2.5 |
9.9 |
15.2 |
|
Net finance cost |
(1.0) |
(7.2) |
(5.9) |
(8.0) |
(8.9) |
(8.3) |
|
Profit before tax |
-9.6 |
-21.5 |
-12.3 |
-5.5 |
0.9 |
6.9 |
|
Taxation |
2.6 |
3.8 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
0.1 |
(1.5) |
|
Net profit after tax |
-7.0 |
-17.7 |
-10.6 |
-3.7 |
1.0 |
5.4 |
22.1 Margin progression and its drivers
Table 51. Margin progression and the drivers behind it
|
R million unless stated |
FY2029 |
FY2030 |
FY2031 |
FY2032 |
FY2033 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Gross margin |
10.8% |
20.2% |
23.3% |
25.2% |
25.8% |
|
EBITDA margin |
-7.6% |
2.1% |
8.1% |
11.0% |
11.8% |
|
EBIT margin |
-22.2% |
-5.9% |
1.7% |
5.4% |
7.1% |
|
Net margin |
-27.6% |
-9.8% |
-2.5% |
0.5% |
2.5% |
|
Groundnuts as a share of net revenue |
43.0% |
41.8% |
40.8% |
40.2% |
40.0% |
|
Payroll as a share of net revenue |
21.1% |
15.5% |
13.9% |
13.0% |
13.1% |
|
Fixed cost as a share of net revenue |
42.3% |
30.8% |
25.9% |
23.2% |
22.4% |
|
Blended realised price (R/kg) |
54.47 |
58.61 |
63.37 |
67.43 |
71.28 |
|
Capacity utilisation |
35% |
54% |
69% |
81% |
89% |
The margin improvement is almost entirely fixed cost absorption and mix. Fixed cost falls from 42.3% of net revenue in Year 1 to 22.4% in Year 5, while the blended realised price rises through mix rather than through price increases on any individual line.
22.2 Years 6 to 10
Table 52. Projected income statement summary, FY2034 to FY2038
|
R million unless stated |
FY2034 |
FY2035 |
FY2036 |
FY2037 |
FY2038 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Volume (tonnes) |
3,170 |
3,360 |
3,560 |
3,750 |
3,900 |
|
Net revenue |
237.0 |
263.3 |
292.1 |
322.2 |
351.0 |
|
Gross profit |
61.4 |
67.5 |
75.1 |
83.6 |
91.5 |
|
EBITDA |
28.4 |
31.0 |
34.6 |
39.1 |
43.0 |
|
EBIT |
18.1 |
19.2 |
22.5 |
27.5 |
31.3 |
|
Net profit after tax |
6.6 |
7.6 |
11.2 |
16.3 |
20.8 |
|
EBITDA margin |
12.0% |
11.8% |
11.8% |
12.1% |
12.3% |
|
Return on invested capital |
10.3% |
10.2% |
12.5% |
15.9% |
19.2% |
|
Dividends declared |
0.0 |
2.7 |
3.9 |
5.7 |
7.3 |