Lumière Nail Bar Business Plan — Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
What moves Year 5 EBITDA: utilisation, membership attrition, average ticket and retail attachment, with downside and upside scenarios.
Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
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- Overview & contents
- i. Important Notice and Basis of Preparation
- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. Market and Positioning
- 3. How a Salon Actually Makes Money
- 4. The Membership Programme
- 5. SWOT and Competitive Position
- 6. Operations and the Capacity Build
- 7. Compliance and Standards
- 8. Management and Team
- 9. Financial Plan
- 10. Break-Even and Debt Service
- 11. Investment Analysis
- 12. Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
- 13. Risk Analysis
- 14. Implementation Roadmap
- 15. Key Performance Indicators
- 16. Key Assumptions
- 17. Conclusion and Recommendation
- A. Appendix A: Consolidated Financial Summary
- B. Appendix B: Capital and Capacity Schedules
- C. Appendix C: Funding, Debt and Working Capital Schedules
- D. Appendix D: Risk Register
- E. Appendix E: Glossary
- 12.1 What moves Year 5 EBITDA
- 12.2 Scenarios
12.1 What moves Year 5 EBITDA
|
Driver |
Low (R) |
High (R) |
Swing (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Utilisation ±8 points |
2 649 752 |
3 868 248 |
1 218 496 |
|
Direct cost ±8% |
2 713 320 |
3 804 680 |
1 091 360 |
|
Membership base ±30% |
2 755 245 |
3 762 755 |
1 007 510 |
|
Realised rate per hour ±10% |
2 759 370 |
3 758 631 |
999 261 |
|
Overhead ±12% |
2 835 400 |
3 682 600 |
847 200 |
|
Retail attachment ±40% |
2 988 664 |
3 529 336 |
540 672 |
|
Base case Year 5 EBITDA |
3 259 000 |
12.2 Scenarios
|
Downside |
Base |
Upside |
|
|---|---|---|---|
|
Membership base |
25% below plan — 585 members |
780 members |
15% above plan — 897 members |
|
Utilisation |
6 points lower |
70% nail, 57% room |
3 points higher |
|
Other assumption |
Overhead 6% higher |
As modelled |
Realised rate 4% higher |
|
Year 5 EBITDA |
2 170 468 |
3 259 000 |
3 947 764 |
|
Year 5 EBITDA margin |
15.9% |
23.9% |
29.0% |
|
Year 5 profit after tax |
1 116 215 |
1 910 844 |
2 413 641 |
The downside combination — membership a quarter below plan, utilisation six points lower and overhead six per cent higher, all at once — still leaves Year 5 EBITDA at R2.05 million and profit after tax at R1.03 million. That is a resilient position, and it reflects the fact that by Year 5 the fixed cost base is carried by a business operating at only 64 per cent nail utilisation with 585 members.