Magalies Quarry Business Plan — Financial Plan and Projections
Five-year projections: revenue to R154.3m and EBITDA to R49.5m, with net income negative until Year 4.
Section 18 of 26
Financial Plan and Projections
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- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. Investment Thesis
- 3. Company and Business Overview
- 4. Problem, Customer Need and Value Proposition
- 5. Industry Analysis
- 6. Market Analysis
- 7. Competitive Landscape
- 8. Products and Services
- 9. Business Model and Operating Model
- 10. Go-to-Market and Commercial Strategy
- 11. Management and Organisation
- 12. Regulatory, Licensing and Fiscal Framework
- 13. ESG, Rehabilitation and Community Impact
- 14. Strategic Plan
- 15. SWOT and Strategic Implications
- 16. Risk Analysis
- 17. Implementation Roadmap
- 18. Financial Plan and Projections
- 19. Funding Requirement and Structure
- 20. Investment Case, Valuation and Returns
- 21. Scenario and Sensitivity Analysis
- 22. KPIs and Management Dashboard
- 23. Conclusion and Recommendation
- A. Appendix A: Projected Income Statement
- B. Appendix B: Projected Balance Sheet
- C. Appendix C: Projected Cash Flow
An operationally driven, fully integrated model: revenue is built from tonnes and prices, and the income statement, balance sheet and cash flow reconcile in every period.
Key modelling assumptions
|
Assumption |
Basis |
|---|---|
|
Volume ramp |
300 → 480 → 600 → 690 → 720 kt |
|
Blended price (Year 1) |
~R170/t, escalating 6% p.a. |
|
Variable cash cost |
~R72/t at maturity, escalating 6% p.a. |
|
Fixed cost |
Payroll ~R15m; non-payroll ~R13m at maturity |
|
Working capital |
Debtors 55d, inventory 32d, creditors 40d |
|
Tax |
27% CIT; s12C-type allowances; 80%-capped assessed-loss set-off |
|
Royalty |
MPRRA unrefined formula (0.5% floor, 7% cap) |
|
Cost of debt |
Prime 10.5% + margin by facility |
Summary income statement
|
R’000 |
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 4 |
Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Revenue |
50,940 |
86,394 |
114,472 |
139,542 |
154,345 |
|
Variable cost |
-24,840 |
-38,465 |
-48,540 |
-59,170 |
-65,447 |
|
Fixed opex |
-23,010 |
-27,574 |
-31,053 |
-32,998 |
-35,066 |
|
Royalty |
-255 |
-788 |
-2,334 |
-3,723 |
-4,334 |
|
EBITDA |
2,835 |
19,567 |
32,546 |
43,651 |
49,499 |
|
EBITDA margin |
5.6% |
22.6% |
28.4% |
31.3% |
32.1% |
|
Depreciation |
-15,148 |
-17,148 |
-19,023 |
-20,148 |
-21,773 |
|
EBIT |
-12,312 |
2,419 |
13,523 |
23,503 |
27,726 |
|
Net interest |
-10,701 |
-12,365 |
-13,986 |
-12,964 |
-10,384 |
|
Profit before tax |
-23,014 |
-9,946 |
-464 |
10,539 |
17,342 |
|
Tax |
6,214 |
2,685 |
125 |
-2,846 |
-4,682 |
|
Net income |
-16,800 |
-7,260 |
-338 |
7,693 |
12,660 |
Year-1 phasing
Year 1 covers commissioning and the initial ramp, so output and revenue build through the year rather than arriving evenly. The illustrative quarterly profile below sums to the Year-1 model figures; EBITDA is negative in the first half as fixed costs precede volume, turning positive as throughput rises, the reason the funding structure carries a grace period and revolver.
|
Year 1 |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
FY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Saleable tonnes (kt) |
45 |
66 |
90 |
99 |
300 |
|
Revenue (R’000) |
7,641 |
11,207 |
15,282 |
16,810 |
50,940 |
|
EBITDA trajectory |
Negative |
Negative |
Near break-even |
Positive |
EBITDA R2.8m |
Cash flow build
Full three-statement detail (income statement, balance sheet, cash flow and supporting schedules) is provided in the appendices in R’000.