A disciplined bottom-up build shows Magalies needs only ~7% of a 90 km catchment to fill nameplate capacity — a modest, defensible share, not a heroic assumption.

Sizing the opportunity

Because aggregate is a local product, the relevant market is not the national total but the economically serviceable catchment. The TAM–SAM–SOM funnel below derives the obtainable market from the corridor’s construction and ready-mix demand within an approximately 90 km haulage radius, then applies a realistic penetration to reach the volume plan.

Bottom-up check on the obtainable market

The top-down funnel is corroborated bottom-up by building catchment demand from its constituent segments. The table below reconciles to a serviceable market of roughly 9.8 Mt, against which the Year-5 plan of 0.72 Mt represents a modest ~7% share, a figure achievable through one or two anchor accounts plus general trade, not market dominance.

Demand drivers and pricing

• Road rehabilitation and construction on the N4 and provincial network, the single largest pull for G-materials and asphalt stone.
• Ready-mix concrete growth in the Pretoria–Rustenburg belt, the core buyer of stone and manufactured sand.
• Platinum-belt infrastructure and township/housing programmes, steady base-load demand.
• Manufactured-sand substitution, a growing share as natural sand supply tightens.

Pricing follows construction inflation; the model escalates prices at 6% per year, broadly in line with input cost escalation, keeping real margins stable through the plan.