North West Egg Sales Business Plan — Financial Plan: Key Assumptions
Every flock, lay rate, feed, price and cost assumption behind the model, stated for testing.
Section 23 of 31
Financial Plan: Key Assumptions
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- 0. Executive Summary
- 1. Investment Thesis
- 2. Company Overview
- 3. Location
- 4. Problem and Value Proposition
- 5. Products and Pricing
- 6. Industry Analysis
- 7. Market Sizing
- 8. Customers and Channels
- 9. Competitive Landscape
- 10. Competitive Positioning
- 11. Business Model and Unit Economics
- 12. Go-to-Market Strategy
- 13. Operating Model
- 14. Farm Infrastructure and Capital Expenditure
- 15. Biosecurity and Animal Health
- 16. Management and Organisation
- 17. Strategic Plan
- 18. SWOT Analysis
- 19. Risk Analysis
- 20. ESG and Sustainability
- 21. Implementation Roadmap
- 22. Financial Plan: Key Assumptions
- 23. Financial Plan: Revenue Build
- 24. Financial Plan: Projected Income Statement
- 25. Financial Plan: Projected Cash Flow
- 26. Financial Plan: Projected Balance Sheet
- 27. Funding Requirement and Structure
- 28. Debt Serviceability and Break-Even
- 29. Returns, Scenarios and Sensitivity
- 30. Investment Case and Next Steps
The model is built from hens, lay rates and rand-per-tonne, not growth percentages
| Production | Assumption |
|---|---|
| Hens placed | 3 x 20,000; placements 4 months apart |
| Cycle | 14 months: 13.5 in lay, 2 weeks cleanout |
| Hen-day production | Peak 94%; cycle average ~85% |
| Mortality | 0.5% a month |
| First grade / seconds | 97% / 3% |
| Feed intake and price | 115 g a day; R6,400/t delivered |
| Pullet / cull hen | R104 in / R44 out per bird |
| Packaging; delivery | R1.28; R0.62 per dozen |
| Financial | Assumption |
| Blended egg price FY2028 | R24.75 a dozen realised |
| Escalation | Eggs, feed, pullets, other 5%; wages 6%; power 8% |
| Working capital | Debtors 21, feed 14, packaging 30, creditors 30 days |
| Senior loan | R27.0m facility; prime + 1% = 11.5%; 10 yrs; 12-month capital moratorium |
| Asset finance | 90% of vehicles; 12.5%; 5 years |
| Tax | 27%; losses carried forward; accounting depreciation |
| Dividends | 40% of net profit from Year 3, subject to cash |
| Exit | 5.5x Year 5 EBITDA (model assumption) |
Reading the numbers. Prime is 10.50% (SARB repo 7.00%, September 2026). EBITDA is stated after flock depletion, because replacing hens is a recurring production cost, not a one-off investment. Pullet purchases are lumpy (three fills in some years, two in others), so lenders are shown a DSCR smoothed by a flock-replacement reserve alongside the raw cash figure. Accelerated farming allowances would defer tax and are upside.
