Premium Hibiscus Business Plan — Financial Plan

Five-year projections: revenue to US$18.2m, gross margin to 32.5% and EBITDA reaching US$3.6m.

Section 19 of 25

Financial Plan

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The financial model is built bottom-up from operational drivers, hectares, yields, tonnes, prices and cost-per-tonne, and integrates a full income statement, balance sheet and cash-flow statement that reconcile in every period and every scenario.

Revenue model — built from drivers

Figure 1. Volume build by source and contracted-farmer count (base case)

USD ‘000	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Nucleus estate hectares (ha)	80	160	280	360	400
Nucleus estate output (MT)	72	184	336	450	520
Outgrower volume (MT)	560	1,610	3,060	4,350	5,380
Total volume (MT)	632	1,794	3,396	4,800	5,900
Contracted farmers (no.)	900	2,200	3,800	5,200	6,200
Blended realised price (USD/MT)	2,550	2,700	2,850	2,980	3,080
Revenue (USD ‘000)	1,612	4,844	9,679	14,304	18,172

Table 16. Revenue driver build. Revenue = volume × blended realised price.

Projected income statement

USD ‘000	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Revenue	1,612	4,844	9,679	14,304	18,172
Cost of sales	(1,378)	(3,911)	(7,301)	(10,128)	(12,272)
Gross profit	234	933	2,377	4,176	5,900
Gross margin	14.5%	19.3%	24.6%	29.2%	32.5%
Operating expenditure	(820)	(1,200)	(1,630)	(2,000)	(2,290)
EBITDA	(586)	(267)	747	2,176	3,610
EBITDA margin	-36.4%	-5.5%	7.7%	15.2%	19.9%
Depreciation	(120)	(305)	(410)	(468)	(503)
EBIT	(706)	(572)	337	1,709	3,108
Finance costs	(300)	(300)	(300)	(300)	(268)
Profit before tax	(1,006)	(872)	37	1,409	2,840
Tax (pioneer holiday Y1–Y3)	-0	-0	-0	(465)	(937)
Net profit / (loss)	(1,006)	(872)	37	944	1,903

Table 17. Projected income statement, USD ‘000. Nigerian Pioneer Status is assumed for Years 1–3 (0% CIT).

Projected balance sheet

USD ‘000	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Cash	2,213	1,392	700	150	180
Receivables	199	597	1,193	1,764	2,240
Inventory	359	1,018	1,900	2,636	3,194
Property, plant & equipment	2,280	3,275	3,665	3,548	3,395
Total assets	5,050	6,282	7,459	8,097	9,010
Payables	57	161	300	416	504
Working-capital revolver	0	0	0	328	0
Term loan	3,000	3,000	3,000	2,250	1,500
Total liabilities	3,057	3,161	3,300	2,995	2,004
Share capital	3,000	5,000	6,000	6,000	6,000
Retained earnings	(1,006)	(1,878)	(1,841)	(897)	1,005
Total equity	1,994	3,122	4,159	5,103	7,005
Total equity & liabilities	5,050	6,282	7,459	8,097	9,010
Balance check	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Table 18. Projected balance sheet, USD ‘000. The balance sheet balances to zero in every period.

Projected cash-flow statement

USD ‘000	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Operating cash flow	(1,087)	(1,221)	(592)	521	1,726
Investing cash flow	(2,400)	(1,300)	(800)	(350)	(350)
Financing cash flow	5,700	1,700	700	(722)	(1,346)
Opening cash	0	2,213	1,392	700	150
Net movement	2,213	(821)	(692)	(550)	30
Closing cash	2,213	1,392	700	150	180

Table 19. Projected cash-flow statement, USD ‘000. Closing cash reconciles to the balance sheet.

Figure 2. Cash, cumulative equity drawn and revolver utilisation (base case)

Capital expenditure & working capital

USD ‘000	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Capital expenditure	(2,400)	(1,300)	(800)	(350)	(350)
Depreciation	(120)	(305)	(410)	(468)	(503)
Inventory	359	1,018	1,900	2,636	3,194
Receivables	199	597	1,193	1,764	2,240
Payables	(57)	(161)	(300)	(416)	(504)
Net working capital	501	1,454	2,794	3,983	4,930

Table 20. Capex and working-capital schedule, USD ‘000. Inventory days 95, receivable days 45, payable days 15.