Premium Hibiscus Business Plan — Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis

What moves the outcome: realised price, volume, rejection rate and working capital, with scenarios.

Section 22 of 25

Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis

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The base case is attractive; the downside is genuinely adverse. Presenting both without smoothing is the point of this section.

Figure 1. EBITDA under downside, base and upside scenarios

Scenario definitions and outcomes

Scenario	Assumptions vs base	Y5 revenue	Y5 EBITDA	MOIC / IRR
Downside	−8% price, −15% volume, +6% cost; 4.5x exit	14,211	863	-0.51x / -99%
Base	As modelled; 5.5x exit	18,172	3,610	3.09x / 29%
Upside	+6% price, +10% volume, −3% cost; 6.0x exit	21,189	5,804	6.24x / 51%

Table 25. Scenario outcomes. USD ‘000 unless stated.

Single-variable sensitivity (Year-5 EBITDA)

Figure 2. Sensitivity of Year-5 EBITDA to ±10% moves in key drivers

Exit-multiple sensitivity

Exit EV/EBITDA	Enterprise value	Equity value	MOIC
4.00x	14,440	13,120	2.19x
4.50x	16,245	14,925	2.49x
5.00x	18,050	16,730	2.79x
5.50x	19,855	18,535	3.09x
6.00x	21,660	20,340	3.39x
6.50x	23,465	22,145	3.69x

Table 26. Equity value and MOIC across exit multiples (base-case operations). The base case assumes 5.5x.

Break-even

Full net-profit break-even falls in Year 3 at approximately 3,343 MT (a margin of safety of ~2% against the Year-3 plan of 3,396 MT). The business turns EBITDA-positive earlier, at roughly 2,329 MT during the Year-2 to Year-3 ramp.