Torque Precision Auto Business Plan — Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
What moves Year 5 EBITDA: the posted labour rate, utilisation, efficiency and discount leakage, with downside, base and upside scenarios.
Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
Jump to section
- Overview & contents
- i. Important Notice and Basis of Preparation
- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. Market and Opportunity
- 3. How a Workshop Actually Makes Money
- 4. Accreditation and Compliance
- 5. SWOT and Competitive Position
- 6. Operations and the Bay Build
- 7. Route to Market
- 8. Management and Governance
- 9. Financial Plan
- 10. Break-Even and Debt Service
- 11. Investment Analysis
- 12. Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
- 13. Risk Analysis
- 14. Implementation Roadmap
- 15. Key Performance Indicators
- 16. Key Assumptions
- 17. Conclusion and Recommendation
- A. Appendix A: Consolidated Financial Summary
- B. Appendix B: Capital and Operating Schedules
- C. Appendix C: Funding and Debt Schedules
- D. Appendix D: Risk Register
- E. Appendix E: Glossary
- 12.1 What moves Year 5 EBITDA
- 12.2 Scenarios
12.1 What moves Year 5 EBITDA
|
Driver |
Low (R) |
High (R) |
Swing (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Posted labour rate R716 to R875 |
4 239 928 |
6 822 330 |
2 582 402 |
|
Utilisation 73% to 88% |
4 247 630 |
6 638 688 |
2 391 058 |
|
Efficiency 104% to 117% |
4 818 408 |
6 344 426 |
1 526 018 |
|
Overhead ±10% |
4 776 508 |
6 269 508 |
1 493 000 |
|
Discount leakage 13% to 4% |
4 689 976 |
5 939 525 |
1 249 549 |
|
Parts revenue ±15% |
4 926 888 |
6 119 128 |
1 192 240 |
|
Base case Year 5 EBITDA |
5 523 000 |
The labour rate is the single largest lever, and the workshop controls it directly. Moving the posted rate from R716 to R875 an hour swings Year 5 EBITDA from R4.24 million to R6.82 million. Utilisation is close behind at a R2.39 million swing between 73 and 88 per cent, and efficiency against book time — the lever most dependent on people rather than policy — moves EBITDA by R1.53 million between a 104 per cent and a 117 per cent technician across the fleet of bays.
12.2 Scenarios
|
Downside |
Base |
Upside |
|
|---|---|---|---|
|
Bay utilisation |
73% |
81% |
86% |
|
Efficiency against book time |
104% |
110% |
115% |
|
Discount leakage |
11% |
7% |
4% |
|
Year 5 EBITDA |
3 139 344 |
5 523 000 |
7 404 869 |
|
Year 5 EBITDA margin |
11.0% |
19.4% |
26.0% |
|
Year 5 profit after tax |
1 681 576 |
3 648 754 |
4 795 409 |
The downside combination — utilisation eight points lower, efficiency six points lower and leakage four points higher, all at once — still leaves Year 5 EBITDA at R3.34 million and profit after tax at R1.83 million. That is a robust operating position, and it reflects the fact that by Year 5 the fixed cost base is carried by a diary that is only 73 per cent full.