Section 11 · Business Plan
Financial Plan
The financial-model overview and assumptions, projected income statement, balance sheet and cash flow, unit economics, break-even and sensitivity analysis.
11.1 Financial Model Overview
The financial plan has been built bottom-up from operational drivers.
Revenue is modelled truck-by-truck based on four core drivers: number of
trucks in service, jobs per day per truck, average revenue per job by
segment, and working days per year. Direct costs are driven by fuel,
driver wages, maintenance and insurance at the truck level. SG&A is
modelled as a set of step-changes at specified scale thresholds. The
model is calibrated against industry benchmarks and the promoters’
direct operational experience.
11.2 Key Financial Assumptions
| Assumption | Year 1 | Year 3 | Year 5 | Source / Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Number of trucks (average) | 18 | 46 | 74 | Bottom-up capex plan |
| Jobs per truck per day | 3.5 | 4.8 | 5.6 | Industry benchmark + route density |
| Working days per year | 340 | 345 | 350 | 95% availability |
| Avg revenue per job (R) | 550 | 685 | 740 | Mix-weighted, CPI +1% |
| Fuel cost per km (R) | 3.80 | 4.35 | 4.80 | Historic fuel + 6% p.a. |
| Avg km per job | 42 | 44 | 46 | Operational averages |
| Driver cost per month (R) | 14,500 | 17,200 | 19,700 | Sectoral determination + premium |
| Fleet maintenance (R/truck/mo) | 8,500 | 11,000 | 13,000 | Age-profile weighted |
| Truck capex (R per unit) | 900,000 | 1,050,000 | 1,180,000 | OEM quote + CPI |
| Useful life (years) | 7 | 7 | 7 | Depreciated straight-line |
| Corporate tax rate | 27% | 27% | 27% | SA CIT |
| Discount rate (WACC) | 16% | 16% | 16% | Private-company risk-adjusted |
11.3 Projected Income Statement (ZAR Thousands)
| Line Item | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 12,000 | 28,000 | 55,000 | 78,000 | 95,000 |
| Direct fuel cost | (1,440) | (3,080) | (5,500) | (7,410) | (8,645) |
| Driver wages | (4,100) | (8,900) | (15,840) | (21,060) | (24,780) |
| Maintenance & tyres | (1,200) | (2,520) | (4,180) | (5,460) | (6,175) |
| Direct insurance & permits | (660) | (1,400) | (2,200) | (2,808) | (3,135) |
| Total Direct Costs | (7,400) | (15,900) | (27,720) | (36,738) | (42,735) |
| Gross Profit | 4,600 | 12,100 | 27,280 | 41,262 | 52,265 |
| Gross Margin % | 38% | 43% | 50% | 53% | 55% |
| SG&A — Personnel | (1,560) | (3,080) | (6,600) | (9,360) | (11,875) |
| SG&A — Technology & Ops | (620) | (1,120) | (2,200) | (3,120) | (3,800) |
| SG&A — Premises & Utilities | (220) | (800) | (1,650) | (2,340) | (2,850) |
| SG&A — Marketing & Sales | (120) | (560) | (1,100) | (2,808) | (2,850) |
| SG&A — Other | (120) | (40) | (330) | (1,256) | (890) |
| Total SG&A | (2,640) | (5,600) | (11,880) | (18,884) | (22,265) |
| EBITDA | 2,200 | 6,500 | 14,000 | 22,000 | 30,000 |
| EBITDA Margin % | 18% | 23% | 25% | 28% | 32% |
| Depreciation & Amort. | (2,400) | (3,800) | (4,500) | (5,100) | (5,600) |
| EBIT | (200) | 2,700 | 9,500 | 16,900 | 24,400 |
| Net finance costs | (1,300) | (1,600) | (2,000) | (1,800) | (1,500) |
| Profit Before Tax | (1,500) | 1,100 | 7,500 | 15,100 | 22,900 |
| Taxation (27%) | – | (300) | (2,025) | (4,080) | (6,180) |
| Profit After Tax | (1,100) | 800 | 5,475 | 11,420 | 17,900 |
11.4 Projected Balance Sheet (ZAR Thousands)
| Balance Sheet Item | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Non-current Assets | |||||
| Fleet (net of depreciation) | 24,600 | 31,800 | 42,500 | 48,400 | 52,000 |
| Yards & equipment (net) | 3,400 | 6,200 | 8,300 | 9,500 | 10,400 |
| Technology & intangibles | 2,600 | 3,500 | 4,200 | 4,900 | 5,500 |
| Total Non-current Assets | 30,600 | 41,500 | 55,000 | 62,800 | 67,900 |
| Current Assets | |||||
| Cash & equivalents | 8,500 | 4,800 | 5,200 | 11,400 | 18,200 |
| Trade receivables | 2,100 | 4,900 | 9,600 | 13,650 | 16,625 |
| Inventory & other | 800 | 1,500 | 2,400 | 3,000 | 3,500 |
| Total Current Assets | 11,400 | 11,200 | 17,200 | 28,050 | 38,325 |
| TOTAL ASSETS | 42,000 | 52,700 | 72,200 | 90,850 | 106,225 |
| Equity | |||||
| Share capital | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 |
| Retained earnings | (1,100) | (300) | 5,175 | 16,595 | 34,495 |
| Total Equity | 23,900 | 24,700 | 30,175 | 41,595 | 59,495 |
| Non-current Liabilities | |||||
| Long-term debt | 15,000 | 22,000 | 30,000 | 33,000 | 30,000 |
| Current Liabilities | |||||
| Trade payables | 1,900 | 3,800 | 7,000 | 10,200 | 11,730 |
| Other current liabilities | 1,200 | 2,200 | 5,025 | 6,055 | 5,000 |
| Total Current Liabilities | 3,100 | 6,000 | 12,025 | 16,255 | 16,730 |
| TOTAL EQUITY & LIAB. | 42,000 | 52,700 | 72,200 | 90,850 | 106,225 |
| Debt : Equity ratio | 0.63 | 0.89 | 0.99 | 0.79 | 0.50 |
| Current ratio | 3.7x | 1.9x | 1.4x | 1.7x | 2.3x |
| Return on Equity | (4.6%) | 3.2% | 18.1% | 27.5% | 30.1% |
11.5 Projected Cash Flow Statement (ZAR Thousands)
| Cash Flow Item | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Activities | |||||
| EBITDA | 2,200 | 6,500 | 14,000 | 22,000 | 30,000 |
| Change in working capital | (1,500) | (3,100) | (4,800) | (4,200) | (2,800) |
| Tax paid | – | (300) | (2,025) | (4,080) | (6,180) |
| Net finance costs paid | (1,300) | (1,600) | (2,000) | (1,800) | (1,500) |
| Cash from Operations | (600) | 1,500 | 5,175 | 11,920 | 19,520 |
| Investing Activities | |||||
| Fleet capex (gross) | (22,500) | (11,000) | (15,200) | (11,000) | (9,200) |
| Yard & infrastructure capex | (4,000) | (3,600) | (2,800) | (2,400) | (2,000) |
| Technology capex | (3,000) | (1,500) | (1,400) | (1,400) | (1,200) |
| Proceeds on disposal of fleet | – | – | – | 1,700 | 2,300 |
| Cash from Investing | (29,500) | (16,100) | (19,400) | (13,100) | (10,100) |
| Financing Activities | |||||
| Equity raised | 25,000 | – | – | – | – |
| New debt drawn | 15,000 | 11,000 | 15,000 | 8,000 | 2,000 |
| Debt repayments | (1,400) | – | (400) | (600) | (4,620) |
| Cash from Financing | 38,600 | 11,000 | 14,600 | 7,400 | (2,620) |
| Net change in cash | 8,500 | (3,600) | 400 | 6,220 | 6,800 |
| Opening cash | – | 8,500 | 4,900 | 5,300 | 11,520 |
| Closing cash | 8,500 | 4,900 | 5,300 | 11,520 | 18,320 |
| Project FCF to Investors * | 1,500 | 3,500 | 12,000 | 19,000 | 27,000 |
| Cumulative Project FCF * | (43,500) | (40,000) | (28,000) | (9,000) | 18,000 |
11.6 Year 1 Monthly Cash Flow Ramp
Note: “Project FCF to Investors” represents the annual net cash
return to the providers of the ZAR 45 million of capital (equity and
senior debt), after reinvestment into capex and working capital.
Cumulative Project FCF begins at –R45.0m at financial close (Year 0
outflow), progresses through the build phase, and reaches cumulative
breakeven during Q4 of Year 4 — this is the basis for the “payback ≈
3.5–4 years” language used in the Executive Summary. The conventional
accounting FCF line inside the cash flow statement is before the
financing inflow from investors and is therefore structurally different
from the investor return measure shown in Figure 11.3.
Year 1 is the most cash-intensive period and the most sensitive to
assumption errors. The monthly cash flow is presented below to give
lenders and investors clear visibility on the ramp. Operating cash
breakeven is achieved in Month 8, and positive monthly operating cash
flow is sustained from Month 9 onwards.
Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of National Recovery & Mobility Services (NRMS).