Vela Footwear — Projected Cash Flow Statement
The projected cash flow statement over the plan horizon — operating, investing and financing cash flows, the capital-drawdown profile and the free cash flow to equity.
Section 13 · Business Plan
Projected Cash Flow Statement
The projected cash flow statement over the plan horizon — operating, investing and financing cash flows, the capital-drawdown profile and the free cash flow to equity.
Cash flow — not accounting profit — determines whether the plan
survives its ramp. The projections show heavily negative operating cash
flow in Year 1 as working capital is built, a progressive recovery as
the business scales, and strong cash generation by Years 4 and 5. The
structure is explicitly designed to bridge the early cash deficit.
Five-year cash flow
| R’000 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 1,694 | 26,231 | 56,663 | 95,732 | 135,666 |
| Change in working capital | (44,490) | (25,430) | (30,655) | (35,267) | (34,530) |
| Taxation paid | — | — | — | (14,863) | (27,898) |
| Operating cash flow | (56,446) | (12,849) | 10,384 | 29,256 | 57,398 |
| Investing cash flow (maintenance capex) | — | (4,500) | (6,000) | (8,000) | (9,500) |
| Financing cash flow (net) | 0 | 15,795 | (4,384) | (21,256) | (47,898) |
| Net change in cash | (56,446) | (1,554) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Opening cash | 62,000 | 5,554 | 4,000 | 4,000 | 4,000 |
| Closing cash | 14,554 | 13,000 | 13,000 | 13,000 | 13,000 |
Financing cash flow nets term-debt drawdowns and repayments,
revolving-facility movements, interest and dividends. The model
maintains a minimum operating-cash floor each year, with the revolving
facility drawing or repaying automatically to hold that floor — which is
why net change in cash is essentially nil from Year 3 once the facility
is actively managed.
Year-1 monthly cash shape
Within Year 1, revenue ramps month by month as the plant fills and
contracts activate — from roughly R5.8 million in the first commercial
month to nearly R25 million by month twelve. This intra-year ramp,
combined with the working-capital build, is the period of greatest cash
strain and the principal call on the revolving facility and
reserves.
Liquidity architecture
- Initial working-capital injection of R62 million
funds the first inventory and receivables build before operating cash
turns. - R85 million revolving facility absorbs the
growing working-capital requirement through the ramp, peaking around R51
million drawn in Year 4. - Two-year capital grace on both term facilities
defers principal repayment until the business is
cash-generative. - R9 million DSRA provides a dedicated
debt-service buffer held as restricted cash throughout.
negative — by design and by necessity
Operating cash flow is approximately negative R56 million in Year 1,
driven by the R44 million working-capital build on top of minimal
EBITDA. The plan funds this from equity, the grant and the revolving
facility rather than from operations. The key liquidity risk is that a
slower revenue ramp or stretched debtor days would deepen and prolong
this deficit; the adequacy of the R85 million facility under stress is
tested in the sensitivity section and should be a focus of lender
diligence.
Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of Vela Footwear Manufacturing (Pty) Ltd.