Vela Footwear — Projected Cash Flow Statement

The projected cash flow statement over the plan horizon — operating, investing and financing cash flows, the capital-drawdown profile and the free cash flow to equity.

Vela Footwear Business PlanSection 13 › Projected Cash Flow Statement

Section 13 · Business Plan

Projected Cash Flow Statement

The projected cash flow statement over the plan horizon — operating, investing and financing cash flows, the capital-drawdown profile and the free cash flow to equity.

Cash flow — not accounting profit — determines whether the plan
survives its ramp. The projections show heavily negative operating cash
flow in Year 1 as working capital is built, a progressive recovery as
the business scales, and strong cash generation by Years 4 and 5. The
structure is explicitly designed to bridge the early cash deficit.

Five-year cash flow

R’000 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
EBITDA 1,694 26,231 56,663 95,732 135,666
Change in working capital (44,490) (25,430) (30,655) (35,267) (34,530)
Taxation paid (14,863) (27,898)
Operating cash flow (56,446) (12,849) 10,384 29,256 57,398
Investing cash flow (maintenance capex) (4,500) (6,000) (8,000) (9,500)
Financing cash flow (net) 0 15,795 (4,384) (21,256) (47,898)
Net change in cash (56,446) (1,554) 0 0 0
Opening cash 62,000 5,554 4,000 4,000 4,000
Closing cash 14,554 13,000 13,000 13,000 13,000

Financing cash flow nets term-debt drawdowns and repayments,
revolving-facility movements, interest and dividends. The model
maintains a minimum operating-cash floor each year, with the revolving
facility drawing or repaying automatically to hold that floor — which is
why net change in cash is essentially nil from Year 3 once the facility
is actively managed.

Figure 10.
Figure 10. Operating, investing and financing cash flows by year (Rm).

Year-1 monthly cash shape

Within Year 1, revenue ramps month by month as the plant fills and
contracts activate — from roughly R5.8 million in the first commercial
month to nearly R25 million by month twelve. This intra-year ramp,
combined with the working-capital build, is the period of greatest cash
strain and the principal call on the revolving facility and
reserves.

Figure 11.
Figure 11. Year-1 monthly revenue ramp (Rm).

Liquidity architecture

  • Initial working-capital injection of R62 million
    funds the first inventory and receivables build before operating cash
    turns.
  • R85 million revolving facility absorbs the
    growing working-capital requirement through the ramp, peaking around R51
    million drawn in Year 4.
  • Two-year capital grace on both term facilities
    defers principal repayment until the business is
    cash-generative.
  • R9 million DSRA provides a dedicated
    debt-service buffer held as restricted cash throughout.
ANALYST CALLOUT — Year-1 operating cash flow is sharply
negative — by design and by necessity

Operating cash flow is approximately negative R56 million in Year 1,
driven by the R44 million working-capital build on top of minimal
EBITDA. The plan funds this from equity, the grant and the revolving
facility rather than from operations. The key liquidity risk is that a
slower revenue ramp or stretched debtor days would deepen and prolong
this deficit; the adequacy of the R85 million facility under stress is
tested in the sensitivity section and should be a focus of lender
diligence.

Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of Vela Footwear Manufacturing (Pty) Ltd.