|
# |
Assumption |
Value |
Source / rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
|
B1 |
Revenue Years 1–3 |
US$1.6m / 2.5m / 3.8m |
Sponsor headline, preserved exactly |
|
B2 |
Revenue Years 4–5 |
US$5.2m / 6.9m |
Sponsor headline, preserved exactly |
|
B3 |
EBITDA Years 1–3 |
US$280k / 630k / 1,120k |
Sponsor headline, preserved exactly |
|
B4 |
EBITDA margin Years 4–5 |
31.0% / 32.0% |
Analyst extension of sponsor margin path |
|
B5 |
Gross margin |
50% Y1 → ~53% Y5 |
Sponsor Y1; mix-driven improvement |
|
B6 |
Corporate tax rate |
27% + assessed-loss c/f |
SA statutory rate (sponsor used 28%) |
|
B7 |
Depreciation |
Component lives 3–10 yrs |
Analyst asset register (sponsor: US$90–120k) |
|
B8 |
Senior facility |
US$960k, 10.5%, 5yr |
60/40 debt-equity; indicative pricing |
|
B9 |
Amortisation |
Straight-line (base) |
Grace-period variant in Section 11.6 |
|
B10 |
Debtor days |
45 |
Corporate/government terms; private work prepaid |
|
B11 |
Inventory |
5% of cost of sales |
Consumables, spares, canvas stock |
|
B12 |
Creditor days |
30 |
Supplier terms |
|
B13 |
Expansion capex |
US$180–420k p.a. Y2–5 |
Fleet growth, internally funded |
|
B14 |
Fleet utilisation |
38% Y1 → 62% Y5 |
Industry benchmark 55–70% at maturity |
|
B15 |
Exit multiple (returns) |
5.0x EV/EBITDA base |
Regional rental transactions 3.5–5.5x |
|
B16 |
Planning currency |
US$ |
Import capex; partial hard-currency revenue |