Evergreen Valley Avocado Estates — Production Plan & Yield Projections
Avocado trees are a long-term biological asset that follow a predictable growth and yield curve. Trees planted as grafted nursery stock typically begin bearing fruit in their third growing season, with yields increasing progressively until full commercial maturity is reached in Year…
Section 9 · Business Plan
Production Plan & Yield Projections
Avocado trees are a long-term biological asset that follow a predictable growth and yield curve. Trees planted as grafted nursery stock typically begin bearing fruit in their third growing season, with yields increasing progressively until full commercial maturity is reached in Year…
9.1 Production Timeline
Avocado trees are a long-term biological asset that follow a predictable growth and yield curve. Trees planted as grafted nursery stock typically begin bearing fruit in their third growing season, with yields increasing progressively until full commercial maturity is reached in Year 6–7.
| Year | Phase 1 (60ha) | Phase 2 (50ha) | Phase 3 (40ha) | Total Production | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Planted | — | — | 0 tons | R0 |
| Year 2 | Establishment | Planted | — | 0 tons | R0 |
| Year 3 | 3 tons/ha = 180t | Establishment | Planted | 900 tons* | R18.0m |
| Year 4 | 7 tons/ha = 420t | 3 tons/ha = 150t | Establishment | 1,650 tons* | R35.0m |
| Year 5 | 12 tons/ha = 720t | 7 tons/ha = 350t | 3 tons/ha = 120t | 2,400 tons* | R52.0m |
| Year 6 | 16 tons/ha = 960t | 12 tons/ha = 600t | 7 tons/ha = 280t | 3,240 tons | R69.0m |
| Year 7 | 18 tons/ha = 1,080t | 16 tons/ha = 800t | 12 tons/ha = 480t | 3,960 tons | R83.0m |
* Includes estimate of early/partial bearing from newer blocks. Revenue assumes a blended average farmgate price of R20–R22 per kilogram across all grades and market channels.
9.2 Yield Assumptions
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Conservative yield curve applied: 3t/ha (Year 3), 7t/ha (Year 4), 12t/ha (Year 5), 16t/ha (Year 6), 18t/ha (Year 7+)
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Alternate bearing adjustment of 10–15% applied from Year 5 onwards in financial projections
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Blended farmgate price of R20–R22/kg assumed (weighted across export, domestic, and processing channels)
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Annual price escalation of 4–5% assumed in line with historical trends and inflationary adjustments
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