Evergreen Valley Avocado Estates — Scenario Planning & 10-Year Outlook

The following table extends the financial outlook to Year 10, capturing the full mature production phase and providing investors with a longer-term perspective on the value creation trajectory.

Section 26 · Business Plan

Scenario Planning & 10-Year Outlook

The following table extends the financial outlook to Year 10, capturing the full mature production phase and providing investors with a longer-term perspective on the value creation trajectory.

26.1 Ten-Year Revenue Projection

The following table extends the financial outlook to Year 10, capturing the full mature production phase and providing investors with a longer-term perspective on the value creation trajectory.

Year	Production (tons)	Price/ton (R)	Revenue (R’000)	EBITDA (R’000)	Net Profit (R’000)
Year 1	0	n/a	0	(7,700)	(11,600)
Year 2	0	n/a	0	(8,300)	(12,200)
Year 3	360	20,000	7,200	2,950	(950)
Year 4	1,020	21,000	21,420	13,600	7,200
Year 5	1,800	22,050	39,690	24,650	15,372
Year 6	2,360	23,153	54,641	34,200	22,464
Year 7	2,740	24,310	66,609	39,450	26,460
Year 8	2,900	25,526	74,025	42,800	29,200
Year 9	3,000	26,802	80,406	45,600	31,400
Year 10	3,000	28,142	84,426	47,800	33,000

Note: Prices from Year 4 reflect 5% annual escalation. Production stabilises at approximately 3,000 tons from Year 8 as all orchards reach peak maturity at 20 tons/ha. Cumulative net profit over the 10-year period exceeds R140 million, representing a multiple of 2.0x on the initial R70 million investment.

26.2 Scenario Analysis – Three Cases

To provide investors with a comprehensive risk-return perspective, the following three scenarios have been modelled:

Base Case

The base case assumes conservative yield estimates, moderate price escalation (5% p.a.), and industry-standard cost structures. This is the primary scenario presented throughout this business plan.

Bull Case (Upside Scenario)

The bull case assumes favourable climatic conditions, strong global demand driving 8% annual price growth, yields 15% above base case, and successful early entry into premium organic markets. Under this scenario, cumulative 10-year net profit reaches R195 million, with an IRR of 29.5% and NPV of R68 million.

Bear Case (Downside Scenario)

The bear case assumes periodic drought conditions reducing yields by 20%, flat pricing due to global oversupply, cost inflation of 8% per annum, and delayed production by one year due to establishment challenges. Under this scenario, the project remains viable with cumulative 10-year net profit of R65 million, IRR of 14.2%, and NPV of R8 million – still exceeding the cost of capital.

26.3 Exit Strategy Options

Investors may consider the following exit strategies, typically evaluated from Year 7 onwards when the orchards are at or near full maturity:

Trade sale to a larger agricultural group (e.g., Westfalia, ZZ2, or international agribusiness companies seeking South African production assets). Avocado farms in prime locations have historically traded at 8–12x EBITDA.
Private equity secondary sale to agricultural-focused private equity funds, which are increasingly active in the South African avocado sector.
Listing on the JSE AltX or main board, either as a standalone entity or as part of a larger agricultural portfolio company.
Dividend recapitalisation, where the company refinances its asset base to distribute accumulated value to shareholders while retaining operational control.
Management buyout of minority shareholders, funded by accumulated free cash flow and new debt facilities.

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