Section 9 · Business Plan
Investment Returns & Valuation
The investment returns are most sensitive to changes in maize selling prices and crop yields, followed by input cost fluctuations. The tornado chart below illustrates the impact of key variable changes on project NPV.
At a 15% discount rate, with a 22–25% IRR and a 4.1-year cumulative payback period.
9.1 Return Metrics
| Return Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Internal Rate of Return (IRR) | 23.4% (5-year horizon) |
| Net Present Value (NPV) | R18.7 million (at 15% discount rate) |
| Payback Period | 4.1 years (cumulative undiscounted cash flow basis) |
| Cash-on-Cash Return (Year 5) | 26.5% |
| Cumulative 5-Year Net Profit | R31.7 million |
| Return on Invested Capital (Year 5) | 20.7% |
9.2 Sensitivity Analysis
The investment returns are most sensitive to changes in maize selling prices and crop yields, followed by input cost fluctuations. The tornado chart below illustrates the impact of key variable changes on project NPV.
Figure 9: Sensitivity Analysis – Impact on NPV
Under the downside scenario (15% price decline combined with 20% yield reduction), the project IRR declines to approximately 12%, which remains above the cost of equity. Under the upside scenario, the IRR increases to approximately 32%, demonstrating significant potential for outperformance.
9.3 Exit Strategy
The Company envisions multiple potential exit pathways for investors, including a trade sale to a larger agribusiness or grain processing company (e.g., Senwes, VKB, or an international player such as Cargill or Louis Dreyfus), a management buyout funded by retained earnings and debt, a private equity secondary sale, or in the longer term, a potential listing on an agricultural commodities exchange. The most probable exit within the five-year horizon is a trade sale or private equity recapitalisation.
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