Kalahari Express Logistics — Financial Projections

The financial projections presented in this section are based on management’s best estimates and assumptions regarding market conditions, pricing, cost structures, and growth trajectories. All figures are in South African Rand (ZAR) and assume a financial year ending 28 February. The projections…

Section 8 · Business Plan

Financial Projections

Year 5 Revenue

ZAR 62,000,000

Growing from ZAR 25 million in Year 1, with the EBITDA margin expanding to ~32% and Year-5 net profit of ZAR 12 million.

8.1 Key Financial Assumptions

Revenue growth: 25–30% year-on-year in Years 1–3, moderating to 20–25% in Years 4–5 as the base grows. Gross margin improvement: from 25% in Year 1 to 29% in Year 5 driven by economies of scale, route optimisation and fleet utilisation. Fuel cost assumption: ZAR 24.50/litre (diesel), escalating at 6% per annum. Wage inflation: 6.5% per annum (aligned with South African logistics sector benchmarks). Corporate tax rate: 27% (South African statutory rate). Depreciation: vehicles depreciated over 5 years on a straight-line basis; IT systems over 3 years. Interest rate on debt: Prime + 2% (approximately 13.5% per annum).

8.2 Revenue and Profitability Summary

Figure

Revenue Profitability — visualised from the accompanying data.

Metric	Year 1 (2026)	Year 2 (2027)	Year 3 (2028)	Year 4 (2029)	Year 5 (2030)
Revenue (ZAR m)	25.0	32.0	40.0	50.0	62.0
Gross Profit (ZAR m)	6.3	8.3	10.8	14.0	18.0
Gross Margin (%)	25.0%	26.0%	27.0%	28.0%	29.0%
EBITDA (ZAR m)	6.0	8.0	12.0	16.0	21.0
EBITDA Margin (%)	24.0%	25.0%	30.0%	32.0%	33.9%
Net Profit (ZAR m)	3.0	4.0	6.0	9.0	12.0
Net Profit Margin (%)	12.0%	12.5%	15.0%	18.0%	19.4%

Figure

Gross Margin — visualised from the accompanying data.

Figure

Revenue Segments — visualised from the accompanying data.

8.3 Projected Income Statement (Profit & Loss)

Income Statement (ZAR ’000)	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Revenue	25,000	32,000	40,000	50,000	62,000
Cost of Sales	(18,750)	(23,680)	(29,200)	(36,000)	(44,020)
Gross Profit	6,250	8,320	10,800	14,000	17,980
Operating Expenses:
Staff Costs	(4,800)	(5,950)	(7,600)	(9,200)	(11,000)
Premises & Utilities	(2,160)	(2,290)	(2,430)	(2,575)	(2,730)
Marketing & Sales	(2,500)	(2,240)	(2,400)	(2,750)	(3,100)
IT & Systems	(800)	(850)	(920)	(1,000)	(1,100)
Insurance	(1,200)	(1,350)	(1,500)	(1,680)	(1,850)
Professional Fees	(600)	(500)	(450)	(400)	(380)
Travel & Transport	(400)	(420)	(450)	(480)	(520)
General & Admin	(900)	(950)	(1,020)	(1,100)	(1,200)
Total Operating Expenses	(13,360)	(14,550)	(16,770)	(19,185)	(21,880)
EBITDA	6,000	8,000	12,000	16,000	21,000
Depreciation & Amortisation	(5,500)	(5,500)	(5,500)	(5,200)	(5,200)
EBIT (Operating Profit)	500	2,500	6,500	10,800	15,800
Interest Income	150	200	300	400	550
Interest Expense	(2,700)	(2,430)	(2,100)	(1,700)	(1,200)
Profit Before Tax	(2,050)	270	4,700	9,500	15,150
Income Tax (27%)	0	(73)	(1,269)	(2,565)	(4,091)
Net Profit / (Loss)	(2,050)	197	3,431	6,935	11,060
Adjusted Net Profit*	3,000	4,000	6,000	9,000	12,000

* Adjusted Net Profit adds back non-cash items (accelerated depreciation) and one-off start-up costs to reflect normalised earnings capacity.

8.4 Projected Balance Sheet

Balance Sheet (ZAR ’000)	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
ASSETS
Non-Current Assets
Property, Plant & Equipment	25,000	24,000	23,000	22,800	22,600
Intangible Assets (Software)	5,000	3,500	2,000	1,800	1,600
Right-of-Use Assets	8,400	7,200	6,000	4,800	3,600
Total Non-Current Assets	38,400	34,700	31,000	29,400	27,800
Current Assets
Trade Receivables	3,500	4,500	5,600	7,000	8,700
Inventory (Fuel & Packaging)	400	500	620	780	960
Cash & Cash Equivalents	14,500	14,700	17,700	23,200	31,200
Prepaid Expenses	300	350	400	450	500
Total Current Assets	18,700	20,050	24,320	31,430	41,360
TOTAL ASSETS	57,100	54,750	55,320	60,830	69,160
EQUITY & LIABILITIES
Share Capital	30,000	30,000	30,000	30,000	30,000
Retained Earnings	(2,050)	(1,853)	1,578	8,513	19,573
Total Equity	27,950	28,147	31,578	38,513	49,573
Non-Current Liabilities
Long-Term Borrowings	18,000	15,500	12,500	9,000	5,000
Lease Liabilities	6,000	4,800	3,600	2,400	1,200
Total Non-Current Liabilities	24,000	20,300	16,100	11,400	6,200
Current Liabilities
Trade Payables	2,800	3,500	4,200	5,200	6,400
Short-Term Borrowings	500	500	500	500	500
Accrued Expenses	1,000	1,200	1,500	1,900	2,300
Tax Payable	0	73	442	1,317	2,187
Current Portion of Lease	850	1,030	1,000	1,000	2,000
Total Current Liabilities	5,150	6,303	7,642	9,917	13,387
TOTAL EQUITY & LIABILITIES	57,100	54,750	55,320	59,830	69,160

8.5 Projected Cash Flow Statement

Cash Flow (ZAR ’000)	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
OPERATING ACTIVITIES
Net Profit / (Loss)	(2,050)	197	3,431	6,935	11,060
Add: Depreciation & Amortisation	5,500	5,500	5,500	5,200	5,200
Add: Interest Expense	2,700	2,430	2,100	1,700	1,200
Less: Interest Income	(150)	(200)	(300)	(400)	(550)
Changes in Working Capital:
(Increase)/Decrease in Receivables	(3,500)	(1,000)	(1,100)	(1,400)	(1,700)
(Increase)/Decrease in Inventory	(400)	(100)	(120)	(160)	(180)
Increase/(Decrease) in Payables	2,800	700	700	1,000	1,200
Increase/(Decrease) in Accruals	1,000	200	300	400	400
Tax Paid	0	0	(73)	(1,269)	(2,565)
Net Cash from Operating Activities	5,900	7,727	10,438	12,006	14,065
INVESTING ACTIVITIES
Purchase of PPE	(25,000)	(4,500)	(4,500)	(5,000)	(5,000)
Purchase of Intangible Assets	(5,000)	(500)	(500)	(800)	(800)
Leasehold Improvements	(5,000)	0	0	(1,000)	0
Net Cash from Investing Activities	(35,000)	(5,000)	(5,000)	(6,800)	(5,800)
FINANCING ACTIVITIES
Equity Raised	30,000	0	0	0	0
Borrowings Raised	20,000	0	0	0	0
Repayment of Borrowings	(2,000)	(2,500)	(3,000)	(3,500)	(4,000)
Lease Payments	(1,200)	(1,200)	(1,200)	(1,200)	(1,200)
Interest Paid	(2,700)	(2,430)	(2,100)	(1,700)	(1,200)
Interest Received	150	200	300	400	550
Dividends Paid	0	0	(1,000)	(2,000)	(3,000)
Net Cash from Financing Activities	44,250	(5,930)	(7,000)	(8,000)	(8,850)
Net Increase/(Decrease) in Cash	15,150	(3,203)	(1,562)	(2,794)	(585)
Cash at Beginning of Period	0	14,500	14,700	17,700	23,200
Cash at End of Period	14,500	14,700	17,700	23,200	31,200

Figure

Cashflow — visualised from the accompanying data.

8.6 Break-Even Analysis

The break-even analysis indicates that the Company will reach operational break-even (monthly revenue exceeding monthly total costs) by approximately Month 18 of operations, corresponding to the second half of Year 2. This assumes a steady ramp-up in fleet utilisation from 45% in Year 1 to 58% in Year 2, with monthly fixed costs of approximately ZAR 1.2 million and a contribution margin of 42%.

Figure

Breakeven — visualised from the accompanying data.

The cumulative break-even point (total accumulated revenue exceeding total accumulated costs including initial capital expenditure) is projected for Year 4, at which point the business will have generated sufficient cumulative cash flows to cover all initial and ongoing investment.

8.7 Capital Expenditure Breakdown

Figure

Capex Allocation — visualised from the accompanying data.

Capital Item	Amount (ZAR m)	% of Total	Timing
Fleet Acquisition	25.0	50%	Months 3–8
Hub & Warehouse Setup	15.0	30%	Months 2–5
IT & Tracking Systems	5.0	10%	Months 3–8
Working Capital	3.0	6%	Month 1 onwards
Contingency	2.0	4%	Reserved
Total	50.0	100%

8.8 Funding Structure

Figure

Funding — visualised from the accompanying data.

Source	Amount (ZAR m)	% of Total	Cost	Terms
Founder Equity	22.5	45%	N/A	75% of equity (J. van Wyk + L. Molefe)
Strategic Investor	7.5	15%	N/A	25% equity; board representation
Term Loan	15.0	30%	Prime + 2%	5-year term; quarterly repayment
Asset Finance	5.0	10%	Prime + 1.5%	Fleet financing; 4-year instalment
Total	50.0	100%

8.9 Key Financial Ratios

Ratio	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Current Ratio	3.63x	3.18x	3.18x	3.17x	3.09x
Debt-to-Equity	0.86x	0.72x	0.51x	0.30x	0.13x
Return on Equity (ROE)	-7.3%	0.7%	10.9%	18.0%	22.3%
Return on Assets (ROA)	-3.6%	0.4%	6.2%	11.4%	16.0%
Interest Cover	0.19x	1.03x	3.10x	6.35x	13.17x
EBITDA Margin	24.0%	25.0%	30.0%	32.0%	33.9%

8.10 Sensitivity Analysis

The following sensitivity analysis illustrates the impact of key variable changes on Year 3 Net Profit, providing investors with a clear understanding of the risk and reward dynamics:

Scenario	Variable Change	Year 3 Net Profit Impact	Year 3 Net Profit (ZAR ’000)
Base Case	As projected	–	3,431
Revenue -10%	Revenue decreases by 10%	-ZAR 2,920	511
Revenue +10%	Revenue increases by 10%	+ZAR 2,920	6,351
Fuel Cost +15%	Diesel price up 15%	-ZAR 1,750	1,681
Interest Rate +2%	Prime rate increases 200bps	-ZAR 500	2,931
Fleet Util. -10%	Fleet utilisation 10pp lower	-ZAR 2,200	1,231
Best Case	Revenue +10%, costs -5%	+ZAR 4,380	7,811
Worst Case	Revenue -15%, fuel +20%	-ZAR 6,700	(3,269)

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