This section presents the full three-statement financial plan. The methodology preserves the sponsor’s operating case for revenue and EBITDA and independently re-derives all financing and tax items to produce a defensible, bankable set of projections in which the balance sheet reconciles to zero in every year.

13.1 Key assumptions

Table 13.1 Principal modelling assumptions.

13.2 Funding structure & sources / uses

The Company is raising R210m, comprising R130m of senior secured debt and R80m of new equity. The uses are weighted toward the margin-driving capex programme, phase-2 regional capacity, and the working-capital build required to support volume and export growth.

Table 13.2 Detailed uses of funds.

13.3 Projected income statement

Table 13.3 Projected income statement, re-underwritten basis.

Reconciliation to the sponsor case

The chart below isolates the single most important analytical adjustment in this plan: the gap between the sponsor’s illustrative net profit and the re-underwritten figure once full depreciation, cash interest and tax are applied.

13.4 Projected balance sheet

Table 13.4 Projected balance sheet. The balance check confirms assets equal equity plus liabilities (nil difference) in every year.

13.5 Projected cash-flow statement

Table 13.5 Projected cash-flow statement.

13.6 Capital expenditure

Table 13.6 Sponsor growth-capex programme. The model additionally provisions phase-2 regional nodes and sustaining/maintenance capex (~3% of revenue) beyond this core programme.

13.7 Unit economics & break-even

Table 13.7 Illustrative unit economics by channel.

On the modelled FY2026 cost structure, the plant covers its fixed costs at approximately 48% of installed capacity, against a modelled FY2026 operating level of 72%. This provides meaningful downside headroom, volumes would have to fall substantially before the plant became loss-making at the operating level. New product lines are expected to reach break-even within 18–24 months of launch.

13.8 Debt service & covenants

Table 13.8 Debt-service coverage. Proposed covenants: DSCR ≥ 1.50x (min modelled 1.83x); net debt/EBITDA ≤ 2.50x; plus a R15m debt-service reserve.

13.9 Scenario & sensitivity analysis

Table 13.9 Scenario summary.

13.10 Returns & valuation

New equity of R80m is modelled to acquire an approximately 13.3% stake at a 6.6x entry EV/EBITDA (pre-money equity value of ~R520m). The returns below assume a five-year hold to FY2030.

Table 13.10 Equity returns under base and conservative exit assumptions.

13.11 Year-1 monthly phasing

The FY2026 base is phased to reflect a modest operational ramp through the year and the characteristic festive-season lift in dairy consumption in the fourth quarter. Monthly cash-flow phasing informs the working-capital facility sizing and the timing of the DSRA funding at close.

13.12 Covenant dashboard

Table 13.11 Proposed covenant package and modelled headroom. All covenants are met with substantial margin throughout the plan.

13.13 Base-case KPI dashboard

The dashboard below consolidates the operating and financial metrics a lender or investor is most likely to monitor through the life of the facility.

Table 13.12 Base-case key performance indicators.

13.14 Downside stress test

The downside scenario applies an 8% revenue shortfall and a 2-percentage-point gross-margin compression, a simultaneous demand-and-cost shock of the kind flagged as the dominant risk in Section 12. The table below re-derives coverage under this stress, holding the debt schedule and financing costs constant. The key question for a lender is whether the facility remains serviceable; it does.

Table 13.13 Downside stress test — coverage under a combined revenue and margin shock.