The plan is built from inception toward a defined liquidity event, with three credible paths and the audited track record to support each.
- JSE listing (7–10 years). A scaled, profitable, audited estate is a candidate for a public listing — the sponsor’s primary stated ambition. This requires the multi-year audited track record the governance plan builds from day one.
- Franchise-led scale. Converting Phase-2 growth to a franchise model both de-risks the balance sheet and creates a higher-multiple, capital-light royalty stream attractive to acquirers.
- Strategic acquisition. A global QSR group seeking authentic African-market entry, or a regional food group, is a natural acquirer of a proven local challenger brand with a national estate.
Illustrative exit valuation bridge
The bridge below builds equity value from the FY2030 normalised EBITDA — the underwriting anchor, not the sponsor headline — at a base-case 8.0× EV/EBITDA exit, net of debt outstanding at exit. Because equity is a residual after net debt, the multiple is the single most powerful driver of the return, which is why the strategy prioritises protecting and lifting it.
|
Valuation bridge (FY2030 exit) |
Amount |
Basis |
|---|---|---|
|
Exit-year EBITDA (normalised) |
R65.4m |
Underwriting anchor, not headline |
|
EV/EBITDA exit multiple |
8.0× |
Base case; QSR range 6–11× |
|
Enterprise value |
R523.4m |
EBITDA × multiple |
|
Less: net debt at exit |
(R86.9m) |
≈1.3× EBITDA at exit |
|
Equity value at exit |
R436.5m |
Residual to shareholders |
|
Equity programme invested |
R130.0m |
Tranche 1 + follow-on |
|
Gross MOIC |
3.36× |
Equity value ÷ invested |
|
5-year equity IRR |
33.4% |
Base-case, 8.0× exit |
Sensitivity to the exit multiple is material: the equity IRR moves from roughly 22.7% at a conservative 6.0× to about 41.7% at 10.0×, underscoring that the underwriting case should rest on the 6–7× downside while management executes toward the higher multiple a capital-light franchise mix can support. The comparable set spans listed global QSR franchisors, which command premium capital-light multiples, and company-owned casual-dining operators at the lower end; a proven local challenger with a national estate and an audited track record sits credibly in the middle of that range.
Key findingExit value is where the returns actually live — protect the multiple
As the returns analysis showed, equity value is a residual after net debt and is highly sensitive to the exit multiple. The most reliable way to protect and lift that multiple is to shift the growth story from capital-intensive company ownership toward a capital-light, higher-return franchise-and-royalty model before exit. The exit strategy and the operating strategy are therefore the same conversation.