This section presents the full three-statement financial plan on the independent underwriting basis: a normalised revenue ramp, full depreciation and cash interest, and South African corporate tax at 27% with assessed-loss carry-forward. The balance sheet ties to zero in every year of the projection.

Modelling posture & key assumptions

The model preserves the sponsor’s mature unit-volume and operating ambitions at the revenue line, then re-derives everything below independently. Revenue is built bottom-up from a store cohort model: each cohort of new stores ramps from ~60% of mature productivity in its opening year to full maturity by month 18, with same-store growth thereafter. This is the single most important departure from the brief’s headline trajectory — and the reason modelled early-year revenue sits below the sponsor’s figures.

Unit economics

The estate’s viability rests on the four-wall economics of a single mature store. Per R100 of sales, food and packaging absorb ~R34, store labour ~R20, and the remaining store operating costs (occupancy, delivery commissions, utilities, local marketing and maintenance) a further ~R23 — leaving mature store-level EBITDA of roughly R22.70 before any central overhead.

Each store crosses its own break-even at the store-contribution level within the first year of trading, well before the estate as a whole turns net-profit-positive. The chart below traces a flagship’s monthly revenue against cost from opening to maturity.

Mature per-store profit & loss

The table sets out the full mature four-wall P&L for each format. Both formats converge on ~22.7% store-level EBITDA — the express format’s smaller absolute contribution is offset by its materially lower capital cost and its strategic role in reach and community presence.

Revenue build

Applying the cohort ramp to the 50-store rollout produces the normalised revenue trajectory below, shown against the sponsor’s headline. Convergence is delayed roughly 24 months by the ramp; by FY2030 the estate generates ~R460m.

Projected profit & loss statement

The full income statement re-derives every line below revenue. EBITDA turns positive in FY2027; net profit turns positive in FY2029 as depreciation and interest are progressively covered by a maturing estate.

Projected balance sheet

The balance sheet reflects a PP&E-heavy rollout funded by phased equity and scaling debt. Book equity remains positive throughout — the direct result of restructuring the single R50m injection into a phased R130m programme. The statement ties to zero in every year.

Balance check is zero in every year — the model is internally consistent and enforced by assertion in the build.

Projected cash-flow statement

Operating cash flow turns positive in FY2028 and funds an increasing share of growth capex thereafter. Investing outflows reflect the store rollout and commissary; financing inflows reflect the phased equity tranches and debt draws. A minimum cash balance of R5m is maintained throughout.

Cumulative free cash flow reaches its trough during the build phase before the maturing estate begins to self-fund. This trough defines the peak external funding the plan must raise — the number a financier is truly underwriting.

Monthly phasing — FY2026

Because Year 1 carries the full ramp, monthly phasing matters for cash management. The table shows modelled monthly revenue for FY2026 as the ten flagship stores open progressively and ramp. Revenue builds from a low base in the opening months to a run-rate exiting the year that annualises well above the R75m full-year figure — the reason FY2027 steps up sharply.

Stores open between months 3 and 11; each ramps individually, so the estate exits FY2026 at a materially higher run-rate than its full-year average.

Quarterly build — FY2026 & FY2027

Capital structure & funding plan

The full five-year programme requires ~R284m of capital expenditure. Funded conservatively, this implies an equity programme of ~R130m (R50m Tranche 1 plus ~R80m follow-on across FY2027–FY2028) and senior/asset-finance debt scaling to ~R90m. The Phase-1 sources and uses, the capital stack, and the capital-requirement bridge are shown below.

Phase-1 sources & uses of funds

The formal sources-and-uses statement reconciles the true Phase-1 requirement against committed funding. The uses restore the items the brief omits — most materially the central commissary — while the sources make explicit that the R50m sponsor equity is one component of a larger stack, not the whole of it.

Committed equity and debt of ~R93m meet ~96% of the true R97.2m Phase-1 requirement; the ~R4.2m residual is absorbed by tranche sizing and early operating cash. The point stands: the R50m headline funds roughly half of Phase 1.

The bridge below traces the same point in a different form: from the brief’s implied R60m (ten stores at R6.0m) to the true Phase-1 requirement of ~R97m once the omitted commissary, head-office platform, launch working capital, pre-opening and contingency are restored. The R47m difference between that requirement and the R50m equity is the funding gap the debt facility closes.

Across the full programme, leverage is highest early — when EBITDA is still thin — and then falls sharply as the estate matures. Net-debt/EBITDA peaks above 6× in FY2027 before deleveraging to a comfortable ~1.3× by FY2030. This trajectory is characteristic of a funded rollout and is why the coverage covenants are set to the ramp rather than to a single steady-state threshold.

Debt-service coverage follows the same shape. The chart below shows DSCR against both the 1.0× floor and the proposed 1.3× steady-state covenant — the visual case for the grace period and reserve account discussed next.

Covenant dashboard

The proposed covenant package is set to the ramp, not to steady state, with headroom that tightens as the estate matures. A funded debt-service reserve (six months of debt service) sits alongside the grace period. The dashboard shows the modelled position against each proposed covenant.

An interest-only grace period applies in FY2026–FY2027; DSCR and leverage covenants take effect from FY2028 with headroom to the modelled base case.

Key financial ratios summary

The ratio summary consolidates the plan’s profitability, leverage and return profile in one view. The trajectory is the story: margins build as the estate matures, gearing peaks during the funded rollout and then falls, and returns on capital turn firmly positive from FY2028 as operating leverage arrives.

Ratios are derived from the independent base case. Net margin turns positive in FY2029 and EBITDA margin reaches ~14% by FY2030 — the underwriting anchor — while the sponsor’s 20–25% net-return ambition is a post-horizon, scaled-estate outcome.

Returns & investor economics

On the independent base case, the R130m equity programme returns a five-year IRR of 33% and a 3.4× MOIC at an assumed 8× EV/EBITDA exit — comfortably above the sponsor’s 20–25% target, though the outcome is materially sensitive to the exit multiple. The table and chart set out that sensitivity.