Vantage Social House Business Plan — Appendix B. Assumptions Register
Appendix B. Assumptions Register
|
Parameter |
Value |
Source / rationale |
|---|---|---|
|
Cost of sales |
32% of revenue |
Food 28–32%, beverage cost <30% (>70% margin) |
|
Gross margin |
68% |
Derived from beverage-weighted mix |
|
Senior debt rate |
13.25% |
Prime 10.5% + 2.75% margin |
|
Capital grace |
2 years |
Standard for greenfield rollout ramp |
|
Amortisation |
5 years straight-line |
Post-grace, to year 7 |
|
Corporate tax |
27% |
SA statutory rate |
|
Assessed-loss set-off cap |
80% |
Post-2022 SA restriction on loss set-off |
|
Capex per venue |
R13m |
Lower end of sponsor R8–14m setup range |
|
Debtor days |
8 |
Card/cash-led hospitality receivables |
|
Inventory days |
12 |
Food & beverage stock on COS |
|
Creditor days |
35 |
Supplier terms on COS |
|
Dividend payout |
30% |
Of positive NPAT from first profitable year |
|
Exit multiple |
7x EV/EBITDA |
SA listed hospitality band ~6–10x |
B.1 Sponsor-versus-analyst reconciliation
|
Net profit after tax (Rm) |
Year 1 |
Year 3 |
Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Sponsor forecast |
(18) |
95 |
385 |
|
Re-derived (this plan) |
(38) |
82 |
429 |
|
Principal difference |
Deeper interest & depreciation |
Higher finance/dep charge |
Assessed-loss tax shelter |
The re-derivation preserves revenue and EBITDA exactly and changes only what sits below them. The deeper early losses reflect full cash interest on the senior facility and realistic depreciation on the phased asset base; the stronger Year 5 net profit reflects the assessed losses from the ramp years sheltering early taxable income. The effect is a more conservative early profile and a more tax-efficient mature one — a more bankable representation of the same operating plan.