This appendix sets out the basis on which the financial model was constructed and the principal external reference points used to ground the market assumptions. The model is a five-year, three-statement projection in which the sponsor’s operating trajectory (revenue, EBITDA, merchant and volume metrics) is preserved as given, while everything below EBITDA — depreciation, cash interest, taxation and the full balance sheet — is independently re-derived by the analyst. The balance sheet is enforced to reconcile to zero in every year.
C.1 Key modelling assumptions
|
Assumption |
Basis applied |
|---|---|
|
Planning horizon |
FY2027–FY2031 (five years) |
|
Corporate tax |
27% South African rate, with assessed-loss carry-forward |
|
Capital structure |
R330m growth equity + R120m senior/venture debt = R450m |
|
Lending funded separately |
Ring-fenced warehouse at an 80% advance rate on eligible receivables |
|
First-loss layer |
R100m lending pool as the equity tranche beneath the warehouse |
|
Base exit multiple |
4.5x forward revenue (headline case) |
|
Normalised anchor |
3.5x forward revenue (underwriting case) |
|
IRR method |
Iterative bisection on projected equity cash flows |
|
Scenarios |
Downside / base / upside on revenue, margin and exit multiple |
C.2 Principal external reference points
Market sizing, growth rates and competitive metrics in this plan are anchored to publicly reported industry data and comparable transactions rather than assumed. The principal references are summarised below; figures are indicative and were used to frame, not replace, the sponsor’s own projections.
- Market size & growth. Published estimates of the South African fintech market (c. US$1.1bn in 2025, growing at roughly 16% annually) and its share of continental fintech activity.
- Payments behaviour. Industry data on annual card volume (c. R2.9tn), per-capita transaction frequency, smartphone penetration and the informal economy’s share of GDP.
- Real-time & embedded finance. Reported PayShap real-time-payment growth and independent projections of the embedded-finance market to 2030.
- Comparable transactions. The 2025 trade sale of a domestic SME acquirer (c. R1.65bn) and development-finance funding of a local SME-lending platform (c. R340m), used as valuation and funding-template references.
- Competitor metrics. Merchant counts, processed volume and lending activity of the leading independent acquirer, drawn from public reporting.
NoteThese figures are reference points, not warranties
External market data is used to sense-check the plan’s assumptions and should be independently verified in diligence. Where public figures were indicative or ranged, the analyst adopted the more conservative end. Nothing in this appendix should be read as a representation or warranty by the Company as to third-party data.