Ferrovanta Mining Services — Sensitivity, Scenario and Returns Analysis
The sensitivity, scenario and returns analysis — base, upside and downside cases across commodity prices, utilisation, margins and exit multiples, and the resulting equity IRR and money multiple.
Section 17 · Business Plan
Sensitivity, Scenario and Returns Analysis
The sensitivity, scenario and returns analysis — base, upside and downside cases across commodity prices, utilisation, margins and exit multiples, and the resulting equity IRR and money multiple.
17.1 Approach
The base case projections represent the management’s central
forecast. Recognising that real-world outcomes vary, this section
presents (i) a sensitivity analysis isolating the impact of individual
variables; (ii) three scenarios (downside, base, upside) flexing
multiple variables simultaneously; and (iii) the equity-return profile
for the investor under each scenario.
17.2 One-Way Sensitivities
The tornado chart below shows the impact on Year 5 EBITDA of
one-standard-deviation moves in each key variable, holding all other
variables constant. Fleet utilisation and contract volume are the most
material upside/downside drivers, followed by diesel price and FX
rate.
17.3 Scenario Analysis
| Metric | Downside | Base | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fleet utilisation (Y5) | 67% | 78% | 84% |
| Contract win rate vs plan | 75% | 100% | 115% |
| Diesel price (vs base case) | +15% | Base | (8%) |
| ZAR/USD (vs base) | (10%) | Base | +5% |
| Year 5 Revenue (ZAR bn) | 11.8 | 16.0 | 19.7 |
| Year 5 EBITDA (ZAR bn) | 2.45 | 4.00 | 5.30 |
| Year 5 EBITDA Margin | 20.8% | 25.0% | 26.9% |
| Minimum DSCR | 1.18x | 1.42x | 1.65x |
| Cumulative Y1-Y7 FCF (ZAR bn) | 8.4 | 13.5 | 18.1 |
| Equity IRR | 18.2% | 30.4% | 41.6% |
| Money Multiple | 2.1x | 4.2x | 6.5x |
17.4 Stress Test Cases
In addition to the multi-variable scenario analysis, three discrete
stress tests have been modelled to confirm the resilience of the
business under severe but plausible single-event shocks. In each case,
the business remains solvent and the senior debt service is maintained,
although equity returns are materially compressed.
| Stress Event | Description | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Anchor contract loss (Y2) | Loss of the Mpumalanga coal contract due to commodity-price-driven mine closure | Revenue Y2 -25%, EBITDA Y2 -42%; DSCR -0.18x; debt-service maintained |
| Major equipment outage (12 months) | Catastrophic OEM-wide reliability issue with primary excavator class | Revenue Y3 -15%, EBITDA Y3 -22%; covered by insurance and OEM warranty |
| ZAR currency collapse (40% devaluation) | Sudden one-off ZAR/USD collapse to 25.90 | Equipment finance costs +18% in ZAR; offset by USD revenue pass-through on cross-border contracts; net FCF impact -8% |
Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of Ferrovanta Mining Services (Pty) Ltd.