Vantor Mobility Group Business Plan › Section 13 › Financial Plan & Projections

This section presents Vantor Mobility Group’s consolidated financial
projections for the first five years of operations. Projections are
constructed bottom-up from operational drivers (coaches, occupancy,
kilometres, fares) and validated top-down against market-size
benchmarks. All figures are presented in South African Rand (ZAR) on an
IFRS basis, consolidated across operating subsidiaries. The plan is
presented in three integrated statements — Projected Income Statement,
Projected Balance Sheet, and Projected Cash Flow Statement — followed by
key ratio analysis, scenario testing, and underlying assumptions.

13.1 Headline Financial Trajectory

VMG’s financial trajectory follows a classic infrastructure-platform
pattern: capital-intensive build-out and J-curve in Years 1–2,
operating-cash break-even in Year 2, accounting profitability in Year 2,
and strong operating-leverage expansion of margins from Year 3 as fixed
costs are amortised across a growing revenue base.

Figure 18.

Figure 19.

13.2 Projected Income Statement

The Projected Income Statement below presents revenue by line of
business, operating costs by major category, EBITDA, depreciation and
amortisation, financing costs, taxation, and net profit. Year 1 reflects
a partial-year ramp with launches in months 9–12 of the operating year;
Year 2 captures the first full year of all Phase 1 corridors with
continuing fleet expansion.

Table 22. Projected consolidated income statement, Year 1 to Year
5 (R million).

Notes: (i) Tax credit in early years reflects assessed losses carried
forward and offset against group taxable income; (ii) Year 4 introduces
a launch-cost line for Phase 3 platform / asset-light expansion; (iii)
D&A reflects coach useful life of 12 years, terminals 25 years,
technology platforms 5 years.

13.3 Projected Balance Sheet

The Projected Balance Sheet below illustrates VMG’s evolving asset
base, capital structure, and equity. Total assets grow from R6.4 billion
at end of Year 1 to approximately R12.9 billion by end of Year 5,
reflecting cumulative capital deployment into fleet, terminals, and
technology. Total equity strengthens materially from Year 3 as retained
earnings accumulate. Net debt peaks in Year 3 and declines thereafter as
operating cash flow exceeds remaining capital deployment.

Table 23. Projected consolidated balance sheet, Year 1 to Year 5
(R million).

Notes: (i) Series B equity injection of R1.0 billion modelled in Year
3 (recorded in share capital); (ii) DFI debt drawn progressively from
Year 2 supports Phase 2 corridor and EV-pilot capex; (iii) Coach fleet
PP&E shown net of accumulated depreciation.

13.4 Projected Cash Flow Statement

The Projected Cash Flow Statement disaggregates the cash dynamics
that drive VMG’s capital needs and ultimately its return to investors.
Operating cash flow turns positive in Year 2 and grows rapidly through
Year 5; investing cash flow remains negative throughout the plan period
reflecting continuing fleet and terminal capex; financing cash flow
shifts from large net inflows in Years 1–2 to modest net outflows in
Years 4–5 as debt is amortised.

Table 24. Projected consolidated cash flow statement, Year 1 to
Year 5 (R million).

Figure 20.

13.5 Key Operating Assumptions

The financial projections are constructed bottom-up from a detailed
operational model. The principal driver assumptions are summarised
below; the full operational model is available to qualified investors
under non-disclosure agreement.

Table 25. Principal operating-driver assumptions for the
financial plan.

13.6 Key Financial Ratios

The ratio table below illustrates the underlying credit and
equity-investor metrics. Net debt to EBITDA peaks at 3.1x in Year 3,
comfortably within the 4.0x senior covenant; interest cover improves
rapidly from Year 3 onward; ROIC crosses the cost of capital in Year 3
and approaches 28% by Year 7 (illustrated on the ROIC chart in section
13.7 below).

Table 26. Key financial ratios, Year 1 to Year 5.

13.7 Return on Invested Capital

Figure 21.

13.8 Scenario & Sensitivity Analysis

The base case projections above assume disciplined execution against
the operating-driver assumptions in Section 13.5. The Group has
stress-tested the plan against three scenarios — Downside, Base and
Upside — varying load factors, fare levels, fuel costs, and capex
timing. The Downside scenario assumes load factor 7 percentage points
below base case throughout, fuel costs 12% higher, and a 6-month delay
to Phase 2 launches; the Upside scenario assumes load factor 4 points
higher, faster cargo ramp, and a successful EV transition delivering 6%
additional opex efficiency.

Figure 22.

Table 27. Scenario summary — key outputs at Year 5.

Table 28. Two-way sensitivity — Year 5 EBITDA to load factor and
fuel cost.

Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of Vantor Mobility Group (Pty) Ltd.