Vantor Mobility Group Business Plan › Section 3 › Industry & Market Analysis

3.1 Global Bus & Coach Market Context

The global bus and coach market provides the macro context against
which the African opportunity can be sized. The market reached an
approximate value of USD 56.5 billion in 2025 and is forecast to grow at
a compound annual rate of 7.9% to USD 120.9 billion by 2035, according
to widely-cited research from Expert Market Research. A separate
methodology by Market Data Forecast values the broader bus market at USD
129.9 billion in 2025, growing at 11.9% CAGR to USD 354.3 billion by
2034. The divergence between these two estimates reflects scope
differences (vehicle sales vs total industry value chain) but the
consistent signal is double-digit, durable growth, driven by
urbanisation, modal shift, fleet electrification, and the post-pandemic
recovery of intercity tourism.

The intercity / coach sub-segment is structurally attractive because
it combines essential mobility demand with relatively predictable
route-based revenues. Unlike urban public transport, which is typically
subsidised and capacity-constrained, intercity coach is a market-priced,
mostly private-sector product with clear unit economics. Established
Western and Asian operators have demonstrated EBITDA margins in the
18–28% range at scale, with FlixBus / Flix SE (parent of Greyhound
Lines) standing out as a benchmark for asset-light platform
monetisation.

3.2 African & Sub-Saharan Market Sizing

The African bus market was valued at approximately USD 2.25 billion
in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 3.21 billion by 2030, representing
a CAGR of 6.1% (TechSci Research). The South African bus market
specifically is forecast to grow at a 8.9% CAGR over the same period,
according to 6Wresearch, outpacing the continental average due to higher
fleet-modernisation activity and a more-formalised operator base. The
broader South African public-transportation market is projected to reach
USD 7.6 billion by 2030 at a CAGR of 8.3% (Grand View Research), of
which long-distance scheduled coach is a substantial sub-segment.

Figure 1.

3.3 Demand Drivers

Five structural drivers underpin sustained growth in African
intercity coach demand:

• Urbanisation and intercity flows: Sub-Saharan
  Africa is the fastest-urbanising region globally; UN-Habitat projects
  the urban population will reach approximately 1.26 billion by 2050, up
  from approximately 580 million in 2024. The corollary is rising
  intercity movement for family connections, education, work, and
  trade.
• Low car ownership: Car ownership in target
  markets ranges from approximately 30 per 1,000 in Zambia and Mozambique
  to 174 per 1,000 in South Africa — far below European and Latin American
  comparables — leaving public transport as the default mode for most
  intercity trips.
• Air-travel pricing gap: Intercity airfares for
  distances between 500 km and 1,500 km in Southern Africa typically run
  at 5–9x the equivalent coach fare on the same corridor, which keeps the
  addressable market for premium-segment coach travel structurally
  large.
• Rail-capacity decline: Conventional intercity
  rail services have declined in availability across the region over the
  past two decades (notably the contraction of South African long-distance
  rail in 2019–2022), shifting demand toward road-based
  alternatives.
• Informal-sector substitution: Approximately
  65–75% of intercity passenger movement in SADC countries currently uses
  minibus taxis or informal operators with weak safety records, creating a
  substantial trade-up opportunity for a formal, branded, on-time
  alternative.

Figure 2.

3.4 Priority Corridors & Demand Density

VMG’s launch strategy is anchored on a curated set of high-density
corridors connecting tier-1 cities across SADC. These corridors have
been prioritised on the basis of estimated daily passenger demand
(combining current formal-operator volumes with substitutable
informal-sector flows), distance-to-revenue ratios, current load-factor
evidence from incumbent operators, and strategic interconnection value.
The eight launch corridors below collectively represent over 30,000
daily passenger movements in both directions — sufficient to support
multiple competing departures and economically rational frequency.

Figure 3.

Importantly, the demand on these corridors is structurally
underserved by formal operators. On the Lusaka–Ndola corridor, which our
research indicates as one of the highest-density intercity flows in the
SADC region with over 5,400 daily passenger movements, the current
formal coach capacity covers only approximately 38% of demand. The
remaining 62% is served by minibus taxis with unscheduled departures, no
online booking, and uneven safety standards. This is a textbook
formalisation opportunity.

3.5 Regulatory Environment

Intercity passenger transport in South Africa is principally
regulated by the National Land Transport Act 5 of 2009, with
cross-border movement governed by the Cross-Border Road Transport Act 4
of 1998 and administered by the Cross-Border Road Transport Agency
(C-BRTA). Operators require route permits and cross-border permits
issued by C-BRTA and equivalent authorities in neighbouring states.
Driver licensing, vehicle roadworthiness, passenger insurance, and
operating-licence renewals are subject to continuous compliance
monitoring.

The implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area
(AfCFTA), now progressing through its operational phases, is steadily
liberalising cross-border movement of goods and services across
signatory states. While the immediate beneficiaries have been formal
trade flows, transport-services provisions within AfCFTA are
progressively easing market-access frictions for licensed transport
operators with regional scale. VMG’s pan-African ambitions are
calibrated to this gradual liberalisation rather than dependent on
it.

Table 5. Principal regulators and statutes across launch
jurisdictions

3.6 Macroeconomic Backdrop

Macroeconomic conditions in VMG’s launch markets are mixed but
broadly supportive of the investment case. South Africa is in a
low-growth period with GDP expansion in the 1.0–1.5% range, but
maintains the continent’s deepest capital markets, the strongest credit
institutions, and the most-developed transport infrastructure. Zambia,
Zimbabwe, and Mozambique are higher-growth economies (3.5–5.0% range)
with younger populations and faster urbanisation. Botswana and Namibia
are smaller in absolute terms but offer political stability and
investment-grade sovereign credit profiles.

Fuel-price volatility is the most material macroeconomic exposure for
the business. Diesel constitutes approximately 25% of variable operating
cost, and Brent-linked pricing transmits global oil-price shocks
directly into the cost base. VMG will deploy a fuel-hedging programme
covering 50–60% of forecast consumption on a rolling 12-month basis from
Year 2 onwards. Foreign-exchange exposure is partially natural-hedged
because revenues in each country are denominated in local currency, but
cross-border fare flows and centralised procurement create residual FX
risk that will be managed via a treasury policy detailed in Section
11.

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