Fish Master Premier Business Plan — Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
How the plan responds to fingerling price, fish price, feed cost and survival rate moving against it, with downside and upside cases.
Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
Jump to section
- Overview & contents
- i. Important Notice and Basis of Preparation
- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. Market and Positioning
- 3. Why the Hatchery Is the Business
- 4. Regulatory Position
- 5. The Production System
- 6. SWOT and Competitive Position
- 7. Route to Market
- 8. Management and Governance
- 9. Financial Plan
- 10. Break-Even and Debt Service
- 11. Investment Analysis
- 12. Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
- 13. Risk Analysis
- 14. Implementation Roadmap
- 15. Key Performance Indicators
- 16. Key Assumptions
- 17. Conclusion and Recommendation
- A. Appendix A: Consolidated Financial Summary
- B. Appendix B: Capital and Production Schedules
- C. Appendix C: Funding, Debt and Grant Schedules
- D. Appendix D: Risk Register
- E. Appendix E: Glossary
- 12.1 What moves Year 5 profit
- 12.2 Scenarios
12.1 What moves Year 5 profit
|
Driver |
Downside (R) |
Upside (R) |
Swing (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Fingerling volume ±25% |
799 054 |
4 179 054 |
3 380 000 |
|
Fish price ±10% |
1 017 554 |
3 960 554 |
2 943 000 |
|
Feed price ±20% |
1 326 254 |
3 651 854 |
2 325 600 |
|
Fingerling price ±15% |
1 475 054 |
3 503 054 |
2 028 000 |
|
Energy cost ±25% |
2 114 054 |
2 864 054 |
750 000 |
|
Harvest tonnage ±15% |
2 146 274 |
2 831 834 |
685 560 |
|
Base case Year 5 profit after tax |
2 352 753 |
Fingerling volume is the largest single lever, ahead of fish price and feed cost. That ranking is the sensitivity analysis confirming what Section 3 argues structurally: the hatchery is the business. Every variable tested leaves Year 5 profit positive in the base configuration, but several come close to zero, and adverse movements combine.
12.2 Scenarios
|
Downside |
Base |
Upside |
|
|---|---|---|---|
|
Fish price assumption |
10% lower |
R98.10 per kilogram |
5% higher |
|
Feed assumption |
20% higher |
R25.50 per kilogram at FCR 1.52 |
FCR improved to 1.45 |
|
Fingerling volume assumption |
20% below plan |
2.6 million |
20% above plan |
|
Year 5 EBITDA |
406 700 |
4 391 000 |
6 748 194 |
|
Year 5 profit after tax |
(1 497 246) |
2 352 753 |
4 844 248 |
The downside combination takes Year 5 to a loss of R0.99 million. That is a survivable outcome rather than a catastrophic one — the facility, the permits and the broodstock retain value, and the hatchery still contributes — but it means the enterprise has not turned by the end of the projection and would require either a further equity injection or a restructuring of the facility.