Fish Master Premier Business Plan — Appendix D: Risk Register
Detailed risk register scoring likelihood and impact across biological, market, financial and regulatory risks with mitigations.
Appendix D: Risk Register
Jump to section
- Overview & contents
- i. Important Notice and Basis of Preparation
- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. Market and Positioning
- 3. Why the Hatchery Is the Business
- 4. Regulatory Position
- 5. The Production System
- 6. SWOT and Competitive Position
- 7. Route to Market
- 8. Management and Governance
- 9. Financial Plan
- 10. Break-Even and Debt Service
- 11. Investment Analysis
- 12. Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
- 13. Risk Analysis
- 14. Implementation Roadmap
- 15. Key Performance Indicators
- 16. Key Assumptions
- 17. Conclusion and Recommendation
- A. Appendix A: Consolidated Financial Summary
- B. Appendix B: Capital and Production Schedules
- C. Appendix C: Funding, Debt and Grant Schedules
- D. Appendix D: Risk Register
- E. Appendix E: Glossary
|
Risk |
Assessment |
Mitigation and residual position |
|---|---|---|
|
Permit refusal or delay for Nile tilapia |
Moderate likelihood, severe impact |
Permit treated as a condition precedent to construction; province selected partly on permitting record; costed fallback to indigenous Mozambique tilapia with the plan re-based |
|
Power interruption killing stock |
High likelihood over five years, severe impact |
Solar with battery backup sized for aeration and circulation, standby generation, low-water alarms and automated oxygen dosing. This is life support, not convenience |
|
Feed price inflation |
High likelihood, high impact |
Bulk contracting, evaluation of imported feed, and continuous FCR management. A 20% feed price rise costs roughly R1.16m of Year 5 profit |
|
Disease outbreak |
Moderate likelihood, severe impact |
Hatchery separated from grow-out, quarantine of all incoming stock, fish health plan, staged tanks limiting the loss to one cohort |
|
Premium channel fails to absorb volume |
Moderate likelihood, high impact |
Offtake discussions concluded before grow-out is commissioned; live channel developed first; fillet line provides an alternative outlet at lower net realisation |
|
Fingerling market weaker than assumed |
Moderate likelihood, high impact |
This carries most of the contribution, so it is tested first. If demand is thin, surplus fingerlings are grown out — a lower-margin but not fatal outcome |
|
Genetic performance below assumption |
Moderate likelihood, moderate impact |
Broodstock sourced with traceable records; performance recorded and selected on; this is also the basis of the hatchery’s competitive position |
|
Skills scarcity |
High likelihood |
Experienced aquaculture manager as a first hire; documented protocols; deliberate training programme. Aquaculture skills are genuinely scarce in South Africa |
|
Grant claim rejected or delayed |
Moderate likelihood, moderate impact |
The grant is claimed in arrears and is not relied on for construction cash flow. A project that cannot be built without it should not be started |
D.1 Pre-committed trigger points
|
Point |
Trigger |
Committed response |
|---|---|---|
|
Month 8 |
Species permit not issued |
Do not begin construction. Re-base the plan on Mozambique tilapia, which cuts harvest tonnage by roughly a quarter at the same infrastructure |
|
First fingerling batch |
Batch fails specification on sex ratio or survival |
Do not commission grow-out. The hatchery is the profitable business and must work before capacity is added |
|
First commercial harvest |
FCR above 2.0 or mortality above 35% |
Independent system and nutrition review before further stocking. Do not expand tanks against an unexplained problem |
|
End of Year 2 |
Fingerling sales below 400 000 |
The contribution engine is not working. Halt grow-out expansion and test the fingerling market directly |
|
End of Year 3 |
Debt service cover below 1.00x |
Approach the lender for a fourth year of grace before the covenant is tested, not after |
|
Any period |
Aeration failure exceeding two hours |
Immediate escalation and root-cause review. A power failure of a few hours can kill a tank; this is the fastest route to catastrophic loss |