Switchpoint Payments Business Plan — Assumption Register
Every volume, pricing, cost and funding assumption behind the model, and those most in need of independent verification.
Assumption Register
Jump to section
- Overview & contents
- i. Important Notice and Basis of Preparation
- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. The Opportunity
- 3. Market and Regulatory Context
- 4. Product, Technology and Security
- 5. Go-to-Market and Unit Economics
- 6. SWOT and Competitive Position
- 7. Financial Projections
- 8. Cash, Funding and the Balance Sheet
- 9. Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
- 10. Risk Analysis
- 11. Regulatory, Compliance and Licensing
- 12. Organisation and Management
- 13. Implementation Roadmap
- 14. Key Performance Indicators
- 15. The Offer, Returns and Recommendation
- 16. Assumption Register
- A. Appendix A: Consolidated Financial Summary
- B. Appendix B: Volume, Pricing and Unit Economic Schedules
- C. Appendix C: Funding, Cash and Balance Sheet Schedules
- D. Appendix D: Risk Register
- E. Appendix E: Glossary
Every material assumption underlying the model is listed below. Figures are stated on an FY2027 basis unless otherwise noted.
|
Assumption |
Value |
Basis and sensitivity |
|---|---|---|
|
Card merchant discount rate |
2.45% falling to 2.26% by FY2031 |
Competitive positioning below bank acquirer pricing. High sensitivity — see Section 9.1 |
|
Card cost of payments |
1.41% falling to 1.33% |
Interchange on a debit-weighted mix, scheme assessment, sponsor and switching. Not negotiable in the near term |
|
Account-to-account pricing |
0.80% of value capped at R25 a transaction |
The cap is the product. Held flat in nominal terms across the horizon |
|
Account-to-account cost per transaction |
R2.40 falling to R1.95 |
Rail and sponsor charges. Exposed to third-party pricing decisions |
|
Rail per-transaction ceiling |
R50 000 |
Raised from R3 000 in August 2024. Caps the addressable share of large trade orders |
|
Practice card volume per merchant |
R340 000 a month |
Independent healthcare practice throughput. Moderate confidence |
|
Trade account-to-account volume per merchant |
R1 250 000 a month |
Migration of existing manual electronic funds transfer volume. Load-bearing — see Section 9.2 |
|
Average trade account-to-account ticket |
R7 600 |
Determines whether the R25 cap binds. Below R3 125 the percentage rate applies instead |
|
Monthly logo churn |
2.4% practice, 1.4% trade |
Reflects differential switching cost. Lifetime value capped at 36 months |
|
Merchant volume ramp |
35% / 60% / 80% / 100% over four months |
Cohort-based. Prevents overstatement of first-month revenue |
|
Same-store volume growth |
3% a year |
Below expected nominal gross domestic product growth. Conservative |
|
Integration partner revenue share |
18% of net revenue on originated merchants |
Generous by design at seed stage. Renegotiation assumed at renewal but not modelled |
|
Cost to serve per merchant a month |
R850 practice, R2 400 trade, declining 34% by FY2031 |
The decline assumes successful automation. Tested in Section 9.3 |
|
Fraud and chargeback losses |
4.5 basis points of card volume |
Mid-range for a mixed retail and business-to-business portfolio |
|
Customer acquisition cost |
R11 800 practice, R46 000 trade in FY2027 |
Declining to R8 100 and R27 500 respectively as the channel matures |
|
Personnel cost |
R625 000 average fully loaded, escalating 6% a year |
Blended across engineering, operations and commercial roles |
|
Engineering treatment |
Expensed as incurred, not capitalised |
Conservative. Depresses reported EBITDA during the build phase |
|
Debtor days |
22 days |
On net revenue. Settlement is same-day; this is the subscription and terminal billing cycle |
|
Corporate taxation |
27% with assessed loss carry-forward |
South African corporate rate with the section 20 limitation applied |
|
Series A |
R85m closing month 16 at R380m pre-money |
Required, not optional. See Section 8.2 |
|
Exit assumption |
6.0x FY2031 net revenue in the base case |
Tested from 3.0x to 9.0x at Section 15.2 |
Three of these carry materially more weight than the rest. The trade account-to-account volume assumption determines whether the strategic thesis is true at all. The card merchant discount rate determines whether the terminal-year figures survive. And the Series A determines whether the company reaches the terminal year. An investor testing this plan should allocate diligence time in roughly that proportion.