Kenya Greenmaster Fresh Business Plan — The Product Ladder
Fine beans, sugar snap and tenderstem across bulk and prepared retail programmes, plus a seasonal Hass avocado line, and what each rung earns.
The Product Ladder
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- Overview & contents
- i. Important Notice and Basis of Preparation
- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. The Opportunity
- 3. The Product Ladder
- 4. Operations and Certification
- 5. Market and Competitive Position
- 6. SWOT and Strategic Response
- 7. Financial Projections
- 8. Working Capital, Funding and the Balance Sheet
- 9. Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
- 10. Risk Analysis
- 11. Regulatory and Compliance
- 12. Organisation
- 13. Implementation Roadmap
- 14. Key Performance Indicators
- 15. Investor Returns and Recommendation
- 16. Assumption Register
- A. Appendix A: Consolidated Financial Summary
- B. Appendix B: Volume, Allocation and Price Schedules
- C. Appendix C: Funding, Working Capital and Balance Sheet Schedules
- D. Appendix D: Risk Register
- E. Appendix E: Glossary
- 3.1 Where every kilogram goes
- 3.2 What the ladder is worth
- 3.3 What the prepared line costs to build
3.1 Where every kilogram goes
The operating model is best understood as an allocation problem. A fixed quantity of field weight arrives at the packhouse each day. Every kilogram is directed to one of three destinations, each with a different economic value, and the whole business consists of shifting the mix upward.
|
Destination |
What it is |
FY2031 price |
Margin a kg |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Premium bulk |
Whole product meeting European cosmetic specification for length, straightness and calibre |
EUR4.74 |
EUR0.44 |
|
Prepared and retail-ready |
Topped, tailed and cut product from material failing cosmetic specification, packed for retail |
EUR6.72 |
EUR2.77 |
|
Local market |
Residual sold domestically at Nairobi wholesale prices |
EUR0.28 |
— |
|
Tonnes |
FY2027 |
FY2028 |
FY2029 |
FY2030 |
FY2031 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Delivered field weight |
855 |
2 090 |
3 800 |
5 510 |
7 030 |
|
Bulk grade |
496 |
1 233 |
2 280 |
3 361 |
4 359 |
|
Out of specification |
359 |
857 |
1 520 |
2 149 |
2 671 |
|
Diverted to the prepared line |
36 |
300 |
730 |
1 182 |
1 603 |
|
Prepared output at 85% processing yield |
31 |
255 |
620 |
1 005 |
1 363 |
|
Local market residual |
323 |
557 |
790 |
967 |
1 068 |
|
Avocado, shipped by sea |
0 |
716 |
1 517 |
2 213 |
2 800 |
|
Total shipped to Europe |
527 |
2 204 |
4 417 |
6 579 |
8 522 |
|
Share of field weight reaching Europe |
62% |
71% |
76% |
79% |
81% |
3.2 What the ladder is worth
|
FY2027 |
FY2028 |
FY2029 |
FY2030 |
FY2031 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Bulk grade share of field weight |
58% |
59% |
60% |
61% |
62% |
|
Out-of-specification recovered by the prepared line |
10% |
35% |
48% |
55% |
60% |
|
Total field weight reaching Europe |
62% |
71% |
76% |
79% |
81% |
|
Contribution per field kg, bulk only |
EUR0.448 |
EUR0.433 |
EUR0.418 |
EUR0.396 |
EUR0.379 |
|
Contribution per field kg, with prepared |
EUR0.545 |
EUR0.755 |
EUR0.839 |
EUR0.852 |
EUR0.852 |
|
Uplift |
1.22x |
1.74x |
2.01x |
2.15x |
2.25x |
3.3 What the prepared line costs to build
A prepared line is not an extension of a packhouse; it is a different category of facility. Cutting and packing ready-to-eat produce requires a high-care environment with controlled air, segregated personnel flow, chlorinated wash systems, metal detection and validated cleaning regimes, certified to a standard European retailers will accept. The capital cost is US$1.62m in FY2028 with further investment thereafter, US$2.36m in total, and the certification and audit burden is permanent.
It also creates a dependency. Prepared product is sold on retail programmes with named customers, specified pack formats and agreed volumes. Losing a programme does not merely lose revenue; it strands a facility built for that specification. The plan assumes no single European customer exceeds a quarter of prepared volume from FY2029, and Section 10 treats customer concentration as a monitored covenant rather than a commercial preference.