Financial Projections

Jump to section

• Overview & contents
• i. Important Notice and Basis of Preparation
• 1. Executive Summary
• 2. The Opportunity
• 3. The Product Ladder
• 4. Operations and Certification
• 5. Market and Competitive Position
• 6. SWOT and Strategic Response
• 7. Financial Projections
• 8. Working Capital, Funding and the Balance Sheet
• 9. Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
• 10. Risk Analysis
• 11. Regulatory and Compliance
• 12. Organisation
• 13. Implementation Roadmap
• 14. Key Performance Indicators
• 15. Investor Returns and Recommendation
• 16. Assumption Register
• A. Appendix A: Consolidated Financial Summary
• B. Appendix B: Volume, Allocation and Price Schedules
• C. Appendix C: Funding, Working Capital and Balance Sheet Schedules
• D. Appendix D: Risk Register
• E. Appendix E: Glossary

7.1 Basis of the model

▪ The model runs monthly across sixty months. The driver is delivered field weight, derived from contracted hectares at 19 tonnes a hectare a year across multiple cycles.

▪ Field weight is allocated to bulk, prepared and local destinations at the rates in Section 3, and revenue and cost follow from that allocation.

▪ Vegetable volumes are seasonalised to the European demand calendar; avocado volumes are confined to a March to September window and ship by sea.

▪ Prepared processing yield is 85%, so a kilogram diverted from the grading table becomes 850 grams of saleable retail-ready product.

▪ Revenue is denominated in euro at 1.08 dollars to the euro; costs are incurred in shillings at 129 to the dollar. No currency movement is assumed.

▪ Prices decline in nominal terms across the horizon on all three lines. No price increases are assumed anywhere in the model.

▪ Kenyan corporate tax is 30% with losses carried forward.

7.2 Income statement

Losses of US$1.33m and US$1.09m in the first two years accumulate to US$2.42m of assessed loss. Those losses shelter the FY2030 profit before tax of US$1.16m entirely and US$1.26m of the FY2031 profit before tax of US$2.16m, leaving US$0.90m taxable and a charge of US$0.27m. The carried-forward loss is fully exhausted by the end of the projection.

7.3 The cost stack

7.4 Operating expenses

Headcount reaches 742 by FY2031, of which the substantial majority is packhouse grading and packing labour. Prepared processing is roughly three times as labour-intensive per kilogram as bulk packing, which is both the reason the margin exists and the reason the line is exposed to any material change in the minimum wage or in labour availability near the facility.

7.5 Capital expenditure

Capital expenditure totals US$6.78m across the plan, of which US$2.36m is the prepared and high-care line and US$1.83m the packhouse fit-out and cold chain. Note that US$0.88m goes into collection centres and field cold rooms distributed across two counties rather than into the central facility — that spend buys the two-hour field heat removal on which shelf life at the European end depends, and it is the least glamorous and most load-bearing item in the programme.