Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis

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• Overview & contents
• i. Important Notice and Basis of Preparation
• 1. Executive Summary
• 2. The Opportunity
• 3. The Product Ladder
• 4. Operations and Certification
• 5. Market and Competitive Position
• 6. SWOT and Strategic Response
• 7. Financial Projections
• 8. Working Capital, Funding and the Balance Sheet
• 9. Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
• 10. Risk Analysis
• 11. Regulatory and Compliance
• 12. Organisation
• 13. Implementation Roadmap
• 14. Key Performance Indicators
• 15. Investor Returns and Recommendation
• 16. Assumption Register
• A. Appendix A: Consolidated Financial Summary
• B. Appendix B: Volume, Allocation and Price Schedules
• C. Appendix C: Funding, Working Capital and Balance Sheet Schedules
• D. Appendix D: Risk Register
• E. Appendix E: Glossary

9.1 Prepared line capture

The share of out-of-specification produce recovered through the prepared line is the assumption on which the plan stands or falls. The base case reaches 60 per cent by FY2031.

9.2 Airfreight

A ten per cent reduction in rates is worth US$1.16m; a thirty per cent increase removes essentially all profit, and EBITDA reaches zero at a 30.6 per cent rise. Partial mitigations exist and are pursued: consolidating volume to negotiate block-space agreements, shifting mix toward the prepared line where freight is a smaller share of a higher price, and growing the avocado line which does not fly. None of them neutralises the exposure. An investor should treat this business as carrying an unhedged position in Nairobi to Europe air cargo capacity.

9.3 Price and currency

A five per cent price movement is worth US$1.86m — more than any operational lever available to management. This is the uncomfortable reality of the position: the company is a price taker on a commodity shelf, and the majority of its earnings variance is determined by European buyers rather than by anything happening in Kenya. The prepared line partially escapes this, because retail programme pricing is negotiated annually rather than set weekly on a wholesale market, which is a further argument for shifting mix toward it.

Currency runs the same way. Revenue is euro-denominated and roughly seventy per cent of the cost base is shilling-denominated, so a strengthening shilling against the euro compresses margin directly with no natural offset within the business. The exposure is partially self-correcting over long periods, because Kenyan inflation and currency depreciation have historically moved together, but that correction is neither reliable nor timely. The plan assumes no movement at all, which is the honest way to present an unhedged position rather than a claim that none exists.

9.4 What moves FY2031 EBITDA

The two largest drivers — airfreight and European price — are both entirely outside management control, and together they swing FY2031 EBITDA by US$8.36m against a base of US$3.55m. Yield and prepared capture follow, and those are the two the company can act on. The ordering is the honest summary of the position: this is a business whose earnings are set principally by a freight market and a retail shelf it does not influence, and whose management can move the outcome at the margin rather than determine it.

9.5 Scenarios and the downside case