Kenya Greenmaster Fresh Business Plan — Assumption Register

Every yield, reject, price, cost and funding assumption behind the model, and those most in need of verification.

Assumption Register

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Every material assumption underlying the model is listed below. Figures are stated on an FY2027 basis unless otherwise noted.

Assumption	Value	Basis and sensitivity
Yield per hectare	19 tonnes delivered field weight a year	Multiple cycles of fine beans and peas under supervision. Moderate confidence; varies materially with rainfall
Bulk grade share of field weight	58% rising to 62%	Cosmetic specification compliance. Low leverage — two points is worth only US$0.07m
Prepared capture of out-of-specification	10% rising to 60%	The load-bearing assumption. See Section 9.1
Prepared processing yield	85%	Trimming and cutting loss. Sensitive to specification and blade setup
Bulk CIF price	EUR4.94 falling to EUR4.74	European programme pricing. Held declining in nominal terms
Prepared CIF price	EUR7.05 falling to EUR6.72	Retail programme pricing, negotiated annually
Avocado CIF price	EUR1.85 falling to EUR1.68	Assumes continued global supply expansion. Conservative
Farmgate price	EUR0.95 a kilogram on all delivered field weight	Paid on whole harvest, not on export grade. Central to side-selling control
Local market price for residual	EUR0.28 a kilogram	Nairobi wholesale. Sets the opportunity cost of prepared raw material
Airfreight	EUR1.95 falling to EUR1.88 a kilogram	Largest single cost. 40% of the bulk price. See Section 9.2
Sea freight on avocado	About EUR0.42 a kilogram	Roughly a fifth of the air rate. The commercial argument for the avocado line
Horticultural export levy	EUR0.14 a kilogram	Included in origin cost
Receivable days	45 days	European buyer terms. Drives the facility and the working capital gap
Payable days	12 days	Growers must be paid quickly. Not a lever
VAT refund lag	210 days	Modelled as permanent working capital rather than a timing difference
Avocado sea transit	34 days	Ocean and port time. Not financeable under a receivables facility
Facility advance rate	80% of approved receivables at 11.5%	Standard for confirmed European trade receivables
Term loan	US$3.0m at 8.5% over 7 years	18 months principal grace, matched to asset life
Corporate tax	30% with losses carried forward	Kenyan corporate rate. Losses exhausted by FY2031
Exchange rates	1.08 USD/EUR; 129 KES/USD	Held constant. Unhedged exposure disclosed in Section 9.3
Exit multiple	6.5x FY2031 EBITDA in the mid case	Tested from 4.0x to 9.5x at Section 15.1

Three of these carry materially more weight than the rest. The prepared capture rate determines whether the strategic mechanic works at all. Airfreight determines whether the business is profitable when it does. And the receivables facility determines whether the company reaches maturity with capital left to operate. An investor testing this plan should allocate diligence time in roughly that proportion.

16.1 Where the plan is deliberately conservative

Assumption	Treated in the base case as	What is left on the table
European selling prices	Declining in nominal terms on all three lines across five years	No inflation pass-through at all. Bulk falls from EUR4.94 to EUR4.74 and prepared from EUR7.05 to EUR6.72
Avocado pricing	Falling from EUR1.85 to EUR1.68 on expanding global supply	Any tightening in the global balance is upside not modelled
Currency	No movement in either direction across the horizon	Kenyan inflation and shilling depreciation have historically moved together, which would help margin
Bulk grade share	58% rising only to 62%	Better seed and harvest discipline could exceed this, though the value is small either way
Prepared capture	Reaching 60% at FY2031, not higher	75% capture is worth US$4.45m of FY2031 EBITDA against US$3.55m at plan
Yield per hectare	19 tonnes, held flat across five years	No improvement from agronomy, variety or irrigation is assumed on a supervised smallholder base

None of these is included in the base case and none should be relied on. They are listed because a reader comparing this plan against a more optimistic one should know which direction the conservatism runs. The price path is the most consequential: holding European prices declining in nominal terms across five years, in a business where a five per cent price movement is worth US$1.86m, is a deliberately unhelpful assumption to have made.

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