Kenya Greenmaster Fresh Business Plan — Appendix D: Risk Register
Detailed risk register scoring likelihood and impact, with mitigations and the pre-committed trigger points adopted as policy.
Appendix D: Risk Register
Jump to section
- Overview & contents
- i. Important Notice and Basis of Preparation
- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. The Opportunity
- 3. The Product Ladder
- 4. Operations and Certification
- 5. Market and Competitive Position
- 6. SWOT and Strategic Response
- 7. Financial Projections
- 8. Working Capital, Funding and the Balance Sheet
- 9. Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
- 10. Risk Analysis
- 11. Regulatory and Compliance
- 12. Organisation
- 13. Implementation Roadmap
- 14. Key Performance Indicators
- 15. Investor Returns and Recommendation
- 16. Assumption Register
- A. Appendix A: Consolidated Financial Summary
- B. Appendix B: Volume, Allocation and Price Schedules
- C. Appendix C: Funding, Working Capital and Balance Sheet Schedules
- D. Appendix D: Risk Register
- E. Appendix E: Glossary
|
Risk |
Assessment |
Response |
|---|---|---|
|
European border interception leading to increased checks or emergency measures |
Moderate likelihood, severe impact |
A one-quarter suspension of the vegetable lines removes US$4.15m of revenue and takes FY2029 EBITDA from US$1.09m to US$0.23m. Systems-approach compliance for regulated pests, pre-shipment inspection, residue testing before despatch, and grower-level traceability to isolate rather than lose a consignment |
|
Prepared line capture below plan |
Moderate likelihood, severe impact |
With no prepared line the business loses US$0.04m at FY2031 scale. Retail programme pipeline secured before capital commitment; grading incentives aligned to diversion rather than rejection; monthly capture reporting from first operation |
|
Airfreight rate increase |
Moderate to high likelihood, high impact |
Airfreight is 40% of the bulk selling price. A 30% increase takes FY2031 EBITDA to US$0.06m. Rates on the Nairobi corridor are set by capacity, fuel and competing cut flower demand. Block-space agreements and mix shift to prepared and avocado are partial only |
|
European retailer withdrawal from airfreighted produce |
Moderate likelihood, high impact |
Several European retailers have publicly committed to reducing carbon footprint and moving away from airfreighted fresh produce. This is a demand-side risk distinct from freight cost and cannot be answered by negotiating rates. The avocado line, which ships by sea, is the only structural response in the plan |
|
Grower side-selling during price spikes |
High likelihood, moderate impact |
Structural to outgrower schemes. Prompt payment, whole-harvest purchase, proximate collection points, and input credit recovered against deliveries rather than demanded in cash |
|
Value added tax refund delay beyond 210 days |
High likelihood, moderate impact on liquidity |
The refund receivable reaches US$0.95m at peak, about 16% of the equity raised, lent interest-free to the tax authority. Claims filed monthly with complete documentation; modelled as permanent working capital rather than a timing difference |
|
Customer concentration in prepared programmes |
Moderate likelihood, high impact |
A lost programme strands facility capacity built to its specification. No customer above a quarter of prepared volume from FY2029; minimum-term supply agreements with volume commitments |
|
Pesticide residue exceedance |
Moderate likelihood, severe impact on licence to trade |
Restricted actives list, enforced pre-harvest intervals, grower spray records audited, batch residue testing |
|
Adverse weather, drought or crop failure |
Moderate likelihood, moderate impact |
Geographic spread across two counties, staggered planting, irrigation at collection catchments, and contracted buffer hectares |
|
Shilling appreciation against the euro |
Low to moderate likelihood, moderate impact |
Revenue is euro-denominated and roughly seventy per cent of the cost base is shilling-denominated. Unhedged and disclosed; partial natural offset through euro-denominated freight and imported packaging |
|
Avocado maturity and sea shipment controls |
Moderate likelihood, moderate impact |
Kenyan authorities enforce maturity standards and have restricted sea shipments outside the season. The March to September window in this plan sits inside the permitted period |
|
Working capital facility withdrawn or repriced |
Low likelihood, severe impact |
Two facility providers from FY2029; covenant headroom monitored monthly; a costed reduced-growth budget maintained |
D.1 Pre-committed trigger points
|
Point |
Trigger |
Committed response |
|---|---|---|
|
Before prepared capital commitment |
Written retail programme indications covering less than a majority of first-year prepared volume |
Do not commit the high-care capital. A facility without a programme is not recoverable |
|
End of FY2028 |
Prepared capture rate below 30% |
Stop expanding contracted hectares and run the business at that scale. Bulk-only at the FY2028 base is roughly cash-neutral |
|
Any quarter |
More than one border interception in a rolling twelve months |
Independent review of the systems approach before the next planting cycle |
|
Monthly |
Facility headroom below US$0.50m |
Reduce the acquisition of new hectares before the next planting, not after |
|
Any season |
Side-selling above 8% of contracted deliveries |
Review collection point proximity and payment timing before contracting the next cycle |
|
Any time |
A single European customer above 25% of prepared volume |
Diversify the programme book before the dependency becomes structural |