Lumière Nail Bar Business Plan — Key Assumptions

Every utilisation, pricing, cost, capital and funding assumption behind the model, and those most in need of verification.

Key Assumptions

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  • 16.1 Capacity, membership and pricing
  • 16.2 Capital, cost and funding
  • 16.3 Assumptions most in need of independent verification

16.1 Capacity, membership and pricing

Assumption

Year 1

Year 5

Basis

Nail stations

6

10

Phased behind demonstrated utilisation

Treatment rooms

3

5

Phased with the stations

Trading hours

10 a day, 6 days a week

10 a day, 6 days a week

302 trading days after public holidays

Sellable hours per station or room

3 020

3 020

Approximately 45 300 hours at full build

Nail utilisation

44%

70%

A practical ceiling around 70% given peak concentration

Room utilisation

33%

57%

Lower because facial and massage bookings are longer and less frequent

Treatment hours sold

11 026

30 728

The product of capacity and utilisation

Realised rate per treatment hour

R319

R312

Blended across nail and treatment room services

Members

90

780

Break-even at 258. Pre-opening gate of 150 founding members

Monthly membership fee

R690

R690

Held flat; an entry-level tier is the downside response rather than a discount

Fee consumed in included treatments

74%

74%

Already recognised in the treatment revenue line

Membership retained margin

26%

26%

R179 a member a month, carrying no additional cost

Package breakage

11%

11%

Recognised on prepaid value sold; unredeemed value held as a liability

Retail attachment

12.2% of treatment revenue

16.0% of treatment revenue

15.1% against total service revenue including ancillary

16.2 Capital, cost and funding

Assumption

Value

Basis

Premises fit-out

R1 680 000

Lease improvements, plumbing, partitioning, lighting and finishes. 44% of capital and poor security

Treatment beds, steamers, wax and equipment

R560 000

Five rooms plus a dedicated wet room, at approximately R112 000 a room

Nail stations, chairs, lamps and extraction

R380 000

Approximately R38 000 a station, including station-level vapour and dust extraction

Sterilisation, systems, retail fixtures, branding and solar

R1 190 000

Autoclave and back of house, booking and membership platform, retail counter, launch programme and backup power

Fit-out, equipment and launch

R3 810 000

Working capital and pre-opening costs

R290 000

Staff, rent and stock ahead of trading, plus the Year 1 trading loss

Total capital deployed

R4 100 000

Direct costs

67% of revenue in Year 1 falling to 50%

Therapist commission, product usage and consumables

Overhead

R2 250 000 rising to R3 530 000

Rent, management, front of house, systems, marketing and compliance

Depreciation

Phased asset schedule

Solar over 10 years; beds, stations and sterilisation over 8; fit-out over 7; retail fixtures over 6; systems over 4; branding over 3

Promoter and investor equity

R2 800 000

68% of capital deployed

Term debt

R1 300 000

Five years at 13.75%; fully repaid by Year 5

Capital moratorium

Twelve months

Interest paid from Year 1; principal from Year 2

Corporate tax

27% with assessed losses carried forward

Section 20 limitation applied; no tax before Year 4

Debtor days

4 days

Largely a cash business; card settlement only

Creditor days

30 days

Professional product house terms

Stock

55 days

Retail and consumable inventory

Exit multiple

3.5x Year 5 EBITDA

Conservative for a single site; driven by contracted recurring revenue and client book transferability

16.3 Assumptions most in need of independent verification

Assumption

Modelled

Verification required

Consequence if wrong

780 members at maturity

Recruited from 90 in Year 1

Pilot the membership offer and price with a sample of the target catchment before the fit-out is committed

Below 258 members the business does not repay its start-up losses. This is the assumption on which everything rests

Catchment supports 70% nail utilisation

30 728 treatment hours a year

Measured footfall at the specific centre, competitor mapping and existing salon utilisation in the catchment

Utilisation is the largest single-year lever, worth R1 218 496 across eight points

Realised rate of about R312 a treatment hour

Held broadly flat

Local menu pricing survey against comparable premium salons in the metro

A 10% shortfall removes R499 630 of Year 5 EBITDA

A salon manager capable of filling a Tuesday

Appointed at Month 1

Direct market testing; references specifically on utilisation and membership conversion

Both of the two largest levers run through this appointment

Direct cost at 50% of revenue by Year 5

Therapist commission and product usage

Commission structures at comparable salons; product house pricing on a two-range basis

An 8% movement swings Year 5 EBITDA by R1 091 360

Rent and centre performance

Carried in overhead

Measured footfall over a full trading week, turnover rental negotiated where possible

Fit-out is sunk from day one and the lease term must match the write-off period

Term facility with a twelve-month moratorium

R1.3m at 13.75%

Written terms before the fit-out is committed

Principal cannot be serviced in Year 1 and the facility breaches on its first test

The list is ordered by consequence. The first three determine whether the business works at all, and all three can be tested by survey, observation and pilot before the fit-out capital is committed. The next two determine the margin. The last two determine whether the cost base and the financing structure hold as designed.