Lumière Nail Bar Business Plan — Key Assumptions
Every utilisation, pricing, cost, capital and funding assumption behind the model, and those most in need of verification.
Key Assumptions
Jump to section
- Overview & contents
- i. Important Notice and Basis of Preparation
- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. Market and Positioning
- 3. How a Salon Actually Makes Money
- 4. The Membership Programme
- 5. SWOT and Competitive Position
- 6. Operations and the Capacity Build
- 7. Compliance and Standards
- 8. Management and Team
- 9. Financial Plan
- 10. Break-Even and Debt Service
- 11. Investment Analysis
- 12. Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
- 13. Risk Analysis
- 14. Implementation Roadmap
- 15. Key Performance Indicators
- 16. Key Assumptions
- 17. Conclusion and Recommendation
- A. Appendix A: Consolidated Financial Summary
- B. Appendix B: Capital and Capacity Schedules
- C. Appendix C: Funding, Debt and Working Capital Schedules
- D. Appendix D: Risk Register
- E. Appendix E: Glossary
- 16.1 Capacity, membership and pricing
- 16.2 Capital, cost and funding
- 16.3 Assumptions most in need of independent verification
16.1 Capacity, membership and pricing
|
Assumption |
Year 1 |
Year 5 |
Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Nail stations |
6 |
10 |
Phased behind demonstrated utilisation |
|
Treatment rooms |
3 |
5 |
Phased with the stations |
|
Trading hours |
10 a day, 6 days a week |
10 a day, 6 days a week |
302 trading days after public holidays |
|
Sellable hours per station or room |
3 020 |
3 020 |
Approximately 45 300 hours at full build |
|
Nail utilisation |
44% |
70% |
A practical ceiling around 70% given peak concentration |
|
Room utilisation |
33% |
57% |
Lower because facial and massage bookings are longer and less frequent |
|
Treatment hours sold |
11 026 |
30 728 |
The product of capacity and utilisation |
|
Realised rate per treatment hour |
R319 |
R312 |
Blended across nail and treatment room services |
|
Members |
90 |
780 |
Break-even at 258. Pre-opening gate of 150 founding members |
|
Monthly membership fee |
R690 |
R690 |
Held flat; an entry-level tier is the downside response rather than a discount |
|
Fee consumed in included treatments |
74% |
74% |
Already recognised in the treatment revenue line |
|
Membership retained margin |
26% |
26% |
R179 a member a month, carrying no additional cost |
|
Package breakage |
11% |
11% |
Recognised on prepaid value sold; unredeemed value held as a liability |
|
Retail attachment |
12.2% of treatment revenue |
16.0% of treatment revenue |
15.1% against total service revenue including ancillary |
16.2 Capital, cost and funding
|
Assumption |
Value |
Basis |
|---|---|---|
|
Premises fit-out |
R1 680 000 |
Lease improvements, plumbing, partitioning, lighting and finishes. 44% of capital and poor security |
|
Treatment beds, steamers, wax and equipment |
R560 000 |
Five rooms plus a dedicated wet room, at approximately R112 000 a room |
|
Nail stations, chairs, lamps and extraction |
R380 000 |
Approximately R38 000 a station, including station-level vapour and dust extraction |
|
Sterilisation, systems, retail fixtures, branding and solar |
R1 190 000 |
Autoclave and back of house, booking and membership platform, retail counter, launch programme and backup power |
|
Fit-out, equipment and launch |
R3 810 000 |
|
|
Working capital and pre-opening costs |
R290 000 |
Staff, rent and stock ahead of trading, plus the Year 1 trading loss |
|
Total capital deployed |
R4 100 000 |
|
|
Direct costs |
67% of revenue in Year 1 falling to 50% |
Therapist commission, product usage and consumables |
|
Overhead |
R2 250 000 rising to R3 530 000 |
Rent, management, front of house, systems, marketing and compliance |
|
Depreciation |
Phased asset schedule |
Solar over 10 years; beds, stations and sterilisation over 8; fit-out over 7; retail fixtures over 6; systems over 4; branding over 3 |
|
Promoter and investor equity |
R2 800 000 |
68% of capital deployed |
|
Term debt |
R1 300 000 |
Five years at 13.75%; fully repaid by Year 5 |
|
Capital moratorium |
Twelve months |
Interest paid from Year 1; principal from Year 2 |
|
Corporate tax |
27% with assessed losses carried forward |
Section 20 limitation applied; no tax before Year 4 |
|
Debtor days |
4 days |
Largely a cash business; card settlement only |
|
Creditor days |
30 days |
Professional product house terms |
|
Stock |
55 days |
Retail and consumable inventory |
|
Exit multiple |
3.5x Year 5 EBITDA |
Conservative for a single site; driven by contracted recurring revenue and client book transferability |
16.3 Assumptions most in need of independent verification
|
Assumption |
Modelled |
Verification required |
Consequence if wrong |
|---|---|---|---|
|
780 members at maturity |
Recruited from 90 in Year 1 |
Pilot the membership offer and price with a sample of the target catchment before the fit-out is committed |
Below 258 members the business does not repay its start-up losses. This is the assumption on which everything rests |
|
Catchment supports 70% nail utilisation |
30 728 treatment hours a year |
Measured footfall at the specific centre, competitor mapping and existing salon utilisation in the catchment |
Utilisation is the largest single-year lever, worth R1 218 496 across eight points |
|
Realised rate of about R312 a treatment hour |
Held broadly flat |
Local menu pricing survey against comparable premium salons in the metro |
A 10% shortfall removes R499 630 of Year 5 EBITDA |
|
A salon manager capable of filling a Tuesday |
Appointed at Month 1 |
Direct market testing; references specifically on utilisation and membership conversion |
Both of the two largest levers run through this appointment |
|
Direct cost at 50% of revenue by Year 5 |
Therapist commission and product usage |
Commission structures at comparable salons; product house pricing on a two-range basis |
An 8% movement swings Year 5 EBITDA by R1 091 360 |
|
Rent and centre performance |
Carried in overhead |
Measured footfall over a full trading week, turnover rental negotiated where possible |
Fit-out is sunk from day one and the lease term must match the write-off period |
|
Term facility with a twelve-month moratorium |
R1.3m at 13.75% |
Written terms before the fit-out is committed |
Principal cannot be serviced in Year 1 and the facility breaches on its first test |
The list is ordered by consequence. The first three determine whether the business works at all, and all three can be tested by survey, observation and pilot before the fit-out capital is committed. The next two determine the margin. The last two determine whether the cost base and the financing structure hold as designed.