Lumière Nail Bar Business Plan — Appendix D: Risk Register
Detailed risk register scoring likelihood and impact, with mitigations and the pre-committed trigger points adopted as policy.
Appendix D: Risk Register
Jump to section
- Overview & contents
- i. Important Notice and Basis of Preparation
- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. Market and Positioning
- 3. How a Salon Actually Makes Money
- 4. The Membership Programme
- 5. SWOT and Competitive Position
- 6. Operations and the Capacity Build
- 7. Compliance and Standards
- 8. Management and Team
- 9. Financial Plan
- 10. Break-Even and Debt Service
- 11. Investment Analysis
- 12. Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
- 13. Risk Analysis
- 14. Implementation Roadmap
- 15. Key Performance Indicators
- 16. Key Assumptions
- 17. Conclusion and Recommendation
- A. Appendix A: Consolidated Financial Summary
- B. Appendix B: Capital and Capacity Schedules
- C. Appendix C: Funding, Debt and Working Capital Schedules
- D. Appendix D: Risk Register
- E. Appendix E: Glossary
|
Risk |
Assessment |
Mitigation and residual position |
|---|---|---|
|
Therapist turnover taking the client book |
High likelihood, high impact |
Bookings, records and membership contracts held by the business; restraint and non-solicitation provisions in employment contracts; team-based servicing so no client is tied to one therapist; retention through commission and development |
|
Membership recruitment falls short |
Moderate likelihood, severe impact |
Pre-opening recruitment before trading begins; membership sold at every visit as a defined process; monthly reporting on joins, churn and redemption |
|
Discretionary spend contraction |
High likelihood over five years, high impact |
Membership base as the buffer; entry-level tier at a lower price point; express service menu that protects visit frequency when basket size falls |
|
Utilisation shortfall in quiet periods |
High likelihood, moderate impact |
Off-peak member pricing, mid-week promotions, corporate and bridal packages targeted at daytime capacity |
|
Treatment injury or infection claim |
Low likelihood, severe impact |
Documented sterilisation protocols, autoclave logs, single-use consumables, therapist qualification verification, professional indemnity cover |
|
Product house dependency |
Moderate likelihood, moderate impact |
Two professional ranges rather than one; retail range chosen for margin and repeat purchase rather than for opening discount |
|
Load shedding disrupting trading |
High likelihood, moderate impact |
Solar and battery sized for lamps, autoclave, water heating and point of sale; these are trading-critical rather than comfort loads |
|
Lease exposure and centre performance |
Moderate likelihood, high impact |
Lease term matched to the fit-out write-off period; turnover rental negotiated where possible; site chosen on measured footfall rather than on centre marketing |
D.1 Pre-committed trigger points
|
Point |
Trigger |
Committed response |
|---|---|---|
|
Month 4 |
Health certificate not issued or premises not trading-ready |
Do not open. A salon trading without a certificate of acceptability is trading unlawfully and is uninsurable |
|
Day one |
Fewer than 150 founding members signed |
Defer the opening date rather than open into an empty diary. Pre-opening recruitment is the whole sequencing argument |
|
Month 12 |
Nail utilisation below 50% or membership below 200 |
Do not add stations. Fill the six you have; defer the Year 2 expansion a quarter at a time |
|
Any month |
Membership churn above target for two consecutive months |
Review redemption, rebooking and the reasons members give. Churn is a service signal before it is a revenue signal |
|
Any month |
Rebooking rate at departure below target |
Escalate immediately. It is the leading indicator of every other number in this business |
|
Year 4 |
Nail utilisation below 65% at site one |
Do not open a second site. The format is not proven until the first site fills |