AgriNova — Industry & Market Analysis

Maize production in South Africa, the market size and growth, the end-use split and consumption, the animal-feed market and the value chain and AgriNova's position.

Section 3 · Business Plan

Industry & Market Analysis

Maize production in South Africa, the market size and growth, the end-use split and consumption, the animal-feed market and the value chain and AgriNova’s position.

This section establishes the size, structure and dynamics of the
markets in which AgriNova will operate: the maize-production base, the
maize-meal and human-consumption market, the animal-feed market that
absorbs yellow maize and by-products, and the equipment market served by
the fabrication division. It draws on agricultural-economics data,
sector commentary and official statistics current as at mid-2026.

3.1 Maize Production in South Africa

South Africa is the largest maize producer in Africa, contributing an
estimated 16% of continental output. The commercial crop has ranged
between roughly 14.5 and 16 million tonnes in recent seasons, with the
2025/26 season forecast at approximately 15.6 million tonnes following
favourable growing conditions. Production is split between white maize,
destined principally for human consumption, and yellow maize, used
predominantly for animal feed. The country is structurally a net
exporter of maize in normal-to-good seasons, which both stabilises
domestic availability and exposes local prices to export-parity and
import-parity dynamics.

Figure 3.1

Figure 3.1 South African commercial maize production by season (million tonnes)

The implication for AgriNova is a deep, reliable raw-material pool.
With a national crop measured in the tens of millions of tonnes, the
Company’s Year-5 maize intake of approximately 32,000 tonnes represents
a fractional share of supply, meaning procurement is not
capacity-constrained and can be optimised on price, quality and
proximity rather than availability.

3.2 Market Size & Growth

The South African maize market was valued at approximately USD 4.1
billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to around USD 5.1 billion by
2030, a compound annual growth rate of roughly 4.5%. Growth is
underpinned by population expansion, the staple status of maize meal,
and rising demand for animal protein, which pulls yellow maize into the
feed chain. The maize-meal segment specifically benefits from
price-inelastic demand: households maintain consumption of pap and
related staples even as disposable incomes fluctuate.

Figure 3.2

Figure 3.2 South African maize market value, 2025 vs 2030 forecast (USD billion)

3.3 End-Use Split & Consumption

Approximately 38% of the South African maize crop is consumed
directly by humans, predominantly as maize meal, with the balance
directed to animal feed, industrial use, seed and exports. Per-capita
maize-meal consumption is among the highest globally at roughly 81
kilograms per person per year, reflecting the centrality of pap to the
national diet. This split frames AgriNova’s product strategy: white
maize for the milling and food lines, and yellow maize plus milling
by-products for the feed division.

Figure 3.3

Figure 3.3 Indicative end-use split of the South African maize crop

3.4 The Animal-Feed Market

South Africa’s compound animal-feed market is estimated at around 8.4
million tonnes per year, within a broader total feed demand of roughly
12 to 13 million tonnes when on-farm mixing is included. Poultry —
broilers and layers — is the dominant consuming segment, followed by
pork at around a quarter of demand and cattle and dairy at roughly 14%.
Maize is the primary energy ingredient across these rations, and milling
by-products such as bran and germ are valuable feed inputs. AgriNova’s
feed plant and bran stream are positioned to supply this growing market,
providing a natural hedge: when human-consumption margins tighten, feed
demand and by-product values often hold up.

Figure 3.4

Figure 3.4 South African animal-feed demand by segment

3.5 Value Chain & AgriNova’s Position

The maize value chain runs from input suppliers and growers, through
grain handling and storage, to milling and feed processing, and finally
to retail, wholesale, institutional and on-farm customers. AgriNova
positions itself across two adjacent links: as a processor (milling and
feed) and as a capital-goods supplier to other processors (equipment and
services). This twin position is deliberately defensive — the equipment
division earns revenue from the same industry trends (decentralisation,
capacity renewal) that could otherwise intensify competition in milling
— and creates cross-selling, financing and aftermarket opportunities
that pure-play millers cannot easily replicate.

Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of AgriNova Milling Technologies (Pty) Ltd.