Aurora Downstream Energy – Business Plan

Investment-grade business plan for Aurora Downstream Energy (Pty) Ltd — an R780-million raise (R450m equity and a R330m senior term debt facility, plus a R250m working-capital revolver) to build an integrated LPG distribution, fuel-trading and logistics platform across Gauteng, the Western Cape, KwaZulu-Natal and the Eastern Cape, scaling to R3,027 million of Year-5 revenue at a compound annual growth rate of about 42% and a 12.1% EBITDA margin, delivering a 34% base equity IRR, a 4.21× equity multiple, a minimum post-grace DSCR of 1.51× and a 4.4-year equity payback.

Confidential Investor-Ready Business Plan

Aurora Downstream Energy

An integrated downstream energy platform for Southern Africa — spanning LPG distribution, fuel trading and supply, and logistics, storage and value-added services, headquartered in Johannesburg with operations across Gauteng, the Western Cape, KwaZulu-Natal and the Eastern Cape — structured as an investment-grade R780-million opportunity for equity investors and senior lenders.

Legal Entity

Aurora Downstream Energy (Pty) Ltd

Location

Johannesburg, Gauteng, South Africa

Capital Raise

R780 million (~USD 47.3m)

Structure

R450m equity + R330m senior debt (+ R250m WC revolver)

Year-5 Revenue

R3,027 million (~42% CAGR)

Year-5 EBITDA Margin

12.1%

Base Equity IRR / Multiple

34% / 4.21×

Min DSCR · Payback

1.51× · 4.4 yrs

EBITDA Break-Even · Exit

2028 · 5.0× EV/EBITDA

Sector

Downstream Energy — LPG & Fuels

The Opportunity

South Africa’s downstream energy market is large and structurally undersupplied — the country consumes hundreds of thousands of tonnes of LPG a year while domestic refinery output has roughly halved, opening a durable import-and-distribution gap — and demand for clean, reliable LPG and fuels is growing across households, industry and commerce. Aurora Downstream Energy captures this with an integrated, capital-light platform spanning LPG distribution, fuel trading and supply, and logistics, storage and value-added services, using third-party terminal access to scale quickly across Gauteng, the Western Cape, KwaZulu-Natal and the Eastern Cape. An R780-million raise (R450 million of equity and a R330 million senior term debt facility, supported by a funded debt-service reserve and a separate R250 million working-capital revolver) funds the phased build and ramp — scaling revenue to R3,027 million by Year 5 at a compound annual growth rate of about 42% and a Year-5 EBITDA margin of 12.1%, with EBITDA break-even in 2028 and a minimum post-grace debt-service-cover ratio of 1.51× — delivering a 34% base equity IRR, a 4.21× base equity multiple and a 4.4-year equity payback over a five-year hold on a 5.0× EV/EBITDA exit.

Plan Contents

This investor-grade business plan is organised into the sections below. Each section is a dedicated page — select any to explore the full detail.

Confidentiality & Disclaimer

This document (the “Business Plan”) has been prepared by Aurora
Downstream Energy (Pty) Ltd (“Aurora Energy”, the “Company”) solely for
the purpose of providing prospective lenders, development finance
institutions and equity investors with preliminary information to assist
them in deciding whether to proceed with a more detailed investigation
of the Company and the proposed transaction. It does not constitute an
offer, invitation or recommendation to subscribe for, or purchase, any
securities, nor shall it form the basis of, or be relied upon in
connection with, any contract or commitment whatsoever.

The financial projections contained herein are forward-looking
statements based on assumptions that management believes to be
reasonable as at the date of preparation. They are illustrative, are not
a forecast or guarantee of future performance, and are inherently
subject to significant business, economic, regulatory and competitive
uncertainties and contingencies, many of which are beyond the control of
the Company. Actual results may differ materially from those projected.
The downstream energy sector is exposed to commodity-price,
exchange-rate and regulatory volatility; the sensitivity and scenario
analyses in the Financial Plan should be read as an integral part of
these projections.

Prospective investors and lenders should conduct their own
independent due diligence and obtain their own legal, financial, tax and
technical advice before making any investment or credit decision. Aurora
Energy, its directors, officers, employees and advisers make no
representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or
completeness of the information in this Business Plan and accept no
liability for any loss arising from its use.

Basis of preparation

All monetary values are stated in South African Rand (ZAR, “R”) in
millions unless otherwise indicated, and reflect a planning exchange
rate of R16.50 per US Dollar. Figures are management estimates derived
from a single integrated financial model; minor rounding differences may
occur. This plan should be reviewed by a qualified financial and legal
adviser before external circulation, and the projections independently
validated by the recipient.

Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of Aurora Downstream Energy (Pty) Ltd.