Aurora Downstream Energy — Implementation Roadmap
The phasing overview and the work packages, dependencies and milestones from financial close through the phased build and ramp.
Section 10 · Business Plan
Implementation Roadmap
The phasing overview and the work packages, dependencies and milestones from financial close through the phased build and ramp.
Aurora Energy’s build-out is sequenced over a 60-month horizon from
financial close, organised into five workstreams — funding &
licensing, infrastructure, commercial, operations & systems, and
expansion — with clearly defined milestones and dependencies. The
roadmap is deliberately conservative on licensing and commissioning
lead-times, recognising these as the principal execution risks.
10.1 Phasing overview
Table 14. Implementation phases and
objectives
| Phase | Period | Objective | Key outcomes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phase 1 — Establish | Months 0–12 | Close funding, secure licences & terminal access, build core platform | Financial close, licences lodged, JHB depot & bottling, fleet, first deliveries |
| Phase 2 — Ramp | Months 12–24 | Commission and ramp to steady-state utilisation | Anchor contracts live, network rollout, EBITDA break-even trajectory |
| Phase 3 — Expand | Months 24–36 | Coastal depots and rural network expansion | National footprint, diversified volumes |
| Phase 4 — Diversify | Months 36–60 | Value-added services and regional assessment | Bunkering pilot, SADC entry assessment, exit-readiness |
10.2 Work packages, dependencies & milestones
Table 15. Critical-path work packages and
dependencies
| Work package | Start | Duration | Depends on | Milestone |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financial close & equity drawdown | M0 | 3m | Investment decision | M3: Financial close |
| Petroleum & LPG licensing | M1 | 6m | Financial close | Licences granted |
| Terminal throughput agreements | M2 | 4m | Financial close | Supply secured |
| JHB depot & bottling build | M4 | 10m | Licensing, terminal access | Plant commissioned |
| Fleet & cylinder pool | M5 | 9m | Financial close | Fleet operational |
| ERP & systems go-live | M6 | 8m | Funding | Systems live |
| Anchor industrial contracts | M6 | 9m | Brand, supply security | Base-load secured |
| Commissioning & first deliveries | M12 | 4m | Plant, fleet, supply | M12: First deliveries |
| Ramp to steady state | M16 | 14m | Commissioning | M24: Break-even trajectory |
| Coastal & rural expansion | M24 | 14m | Steady-state ops | M36: National footprint |
| Bunkering & SADC assessment | M42 | 12m+ | National platform | M54: Phase-3 / regional |
| Analyst note — schedule risk The critical path runs through financial close → licensing and terminal access → plant commissioning → first deliveries (targeted at Month 12). Slippage in licensing or terminal-access agreements is the most material schedule risk and would push out the revenue ramp; the debt structure’s 24-month repayment grace period and funded debt-service reserve are sized to absorb reasonable commissioning delays. |
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Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of Aurora Downstream Energy (Pty) Ltd.