Aurora Downstream Energy — Appendices
Supporting appendices - the volume and price assumptions, the depreciation schedule, the DCF detail, the monthly Year-1 cash flow and the glossary underpinning the Aurora Energy business plan and financial model.
Section 17 · Business Plan
Appendices
Supporting appendices – the volume and price assumptions, the depreciation schedule, the DCF detail, the monthly Year-1 cash flow and the glossary underpinning the Aurora Energy business plan and financial model.
Appendix A — Volume & price assumptions
Table 31. Operating volume and price
assumptions
| Metric | FY2026 | FY2027 | FY2028 | FY2029 | FY2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LPG volume (kt) | 22.0 | 38.0 | 50.0 | 58.0 | 65.0 |
| LPG avg price (R/kg) | 23.5 | 24.7 | 25.9 | 27.2 | 28.6 |
| Fuel volume (ML) | 8.0 | 16.0 | 24.0 | 30.0 | 34.0 |
| Fuel avg price (R/L) | 23.00 | 24.00 | 25.00 | 26.00 | 27.00 |
Appendix B — Depreciation schedule
Table 32. Depreciation by asset class
(R’m)
| R’m | FY2026 | FY2027 | FY2028 | FY2029 | FY2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terminals & depots | 9 | 12 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
| Bottling & blending | 7 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| Fleet & cylinders | 9 | 13 | 17 | 19 | 20 |
| IT & other | 8 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 17 |
| Total depreciation | 32 | 45 | 55 | 60 | 65 |
Appendix C — DCF detail
Table 33. Discounted cash-flow build
(R’m)
| R’m | FY2026 | FY2027 | FY2028 | FY2029 | FY2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unlevered free cash flow | (451) | (97) | 45 | 161 | 231 |
| Discount factor | 0.866 | 0.750 | 0.649 | 0.562 | 0.486 |
| PV of free cash flow | (391) | (73) | 29 | 91 | 112 |
Sum of PV of explicit free cash flows plus the present value of the
terminal value (R936m, based on 4.5% perpetuity growth at a 15.5% WACC)
gives an enterprise value of approximately R706m.
Appendix D — Monthly Year-1 cash flow
Table 34. Year-1 monthly EBITDA and cumulative
cash (R’m)
| R’m | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 15 | 22 | 30 | 37 | 45 | 52 |
| EBITDA | (6) | (5) | (4) | (2) | (1) | 0 |
| Cumulative cash | 706 | 640 | 591 | 551 | 519 | 492 |
| R’m | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 67 | 74 | 82 | 96 | 104 | 119 |
| EBITDA | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 11 |
| Cumulative cash | 472 | 457 | 442 | 434 | 424 | 419 |
Appendix E — Glossary
Table 35. Glossary of key terms
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| LPG | Liquefied petroleum gas (propane/butane), used for cooking, heating and industrial process heat |
| BFP | Basic Fuel Price — the import-parity benchmark used in regulated fuel pricing |
| MRGP | Maximum Refinery Gate Price — the regulated maximum wholesale price for LPG |
| MRP | Maximum Retail Price — the regulated maximum consumer price for LPG |
| DSCR | Debt-Service Cover Ratio — CFADS divided by debt service |
| CFADS | Cash Flow Available for Debt Service |
| DSRA | Debt-Service Reserve Account — funded reserve covering debt service |
| EBITDA | Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation |
| IRR | Internal Rate of Return |
| WACC | Weighted Average Cost of Capital |
| B-BBEE | Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment |
| DMRE / NERSA | Department of Mineral Resources & Energy / National Energy Regulator of South Africa |
| 3PL | Third-party logistics |
End of business plan. Strictly private and confidential. This
document should be reviewed by a qualified financial and legal adviser,
and its projections independently validated, before any external
circulation or investment decision.
Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of Aurora Downstream Energy (Pty) Ltd.