The following register summarises the principal assumptions underpinning the model. All are the Company’s estimates for a proposed venture and should be independently verified.
|
Assumption |
Value / basis |
|---|---|
|
Network rollout |
8 → 18 → 35 → 65 → 100 restaurants (FY2027–FY2031) |
|
Corporate : franchise split |
20 corporate, 80 franchised at maturity |
|
Mature corporate store run-rate |
~R40.6m p.a. (blended formats) |
|
Mature franchise store run-rate |
~R33.4m p.a. (system) |
|
Store ramp curve |
50% / 85% / 100% of run-rate in opening / +1 / +2 years |
|
System EBITDA margin |
12.2% → 21.5% (sponsor headline, preserved) |
|
Royalty rate |
6% of franchisee turnover |
|
Marketing levy |
3% (pass-through, excluded from revenue) |
|
Initial franchise fee |
R1.8m per new franchise |
|
Corporate store capex |
R11m per store (blended) |
|
Depreciation |
Stores 10y; commissary 15y; tech 5y; building 40y (SL) |
|
Corporate tax rate |
27% with assessed-loss carry-forward (80% limit) |
|
Prime / repo rate |
10.5% / 7.0% (mid-2026) |
|
Senior debt |
R150m, prime + 2.75%, 24m grace, amortise FY2029–FY2033 |
|
Working-capital facility |
R50m revolving, prime + 3.5% |
|
DSRA |
R25m funded at close |
|
Dividend policy |
45% of net profit from FY2030 (base case) |
|
Exit assumption |
9.0× EV/EBITDA on FY2031 statutory EBITDA (base) |
NoteModel governance
The model is maintained as a single source of truth: a Python engine generates all figures, which flow unchanged into every table and chart in this document. The balance sheet is enforced to tie to zero in every year by construction. Sensitivities in Sections 23 and 24 are generated from the same engine to ensure internal consistency.