Aurum Grill Business Plan — Appendix B: Key Assumptions Register

Appendix B · 29 of 29

Key Assumptions Register

The following register summarises the principal assumptions underpinning the model. All are the Company’s estimates for a proposed venture and should be independently verified.

Assumption

Value / basis

Network rollout

8 → 18 → 35 → 65 → 100 restaurants (FY2027–FY2031)

Corporate : franchise split

20 corporate, 80 franchised at maturity

Mature corporate store run-rate

~R40.6m p.a. (blended formats)

Mature franchise store run-rate

~R33.4m p.a. (system)

Store ramp curve

50% / 85% / 100% of run-rate in opening / +1 / +2 years

System EBITDA margin

12.2% → 21.5% (sponsor headline, preserved)

Royalty rate

6% of franchisee turnover

Marketing levy

3% (pass-through, excluded from revenue)

Initial franchise fee

R1.8m per new franchise

Corporate store capex

R11m per store (blended)

Depreciation

Stores 10y; commissary 15y; tech 5y; building 40y (SL)

Corporate tax rate

27% with assessed-loss carry-forward (80% limit)

Prime / repo rate

10.5% / 7.0% (mid-2026)

Senior debt

R150m, prime + 2.75%, 24m grace, amortise FY2029–FY2033

Working-capital facility

R50m revolving, prime + 3.5%

DSRA

R25m funded at close

Dividend policy

45% of net profit from FY2030 (base case)

Exit assumption

9.0× EV/EBITDA on FY2031 statutory EBITDA (base)

NoteModel governance

The model is maintained as a single source of truth: a Python engine generates all figures, which flow unchanged into every table and chart in this document. The balance sheet is enforced to tie to zero in every year by construction. Sensitivities in Sections 23 and 24 are generated from the same engine to ensure internal consistency.