Aurum Grill Business Plan — Financial Projections

This section presents the full projected profit and loss, balance sheet and cash-flow statement on the statutory basis, together with the system-wide performance layer. Summary detail is provided here; fully line-itemised statements appear in Appendix A.

Revenue and EBITDA

Figure 13. *Statutory revenue composition: corporate store sales dominate early years; royalties, property and rebates scale the franchisor income layer.*

Figure 14. *System versus statutory EBITDA with margins; statutory EBITDA margin expands to ~25% as high-margin franchisor income scales.*

Projected profit & loss (statutory)

R millions	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031
Statutory revenue	183	470	776	1,081	1,334
Operating costs	(195)	(427)	(645)	(842)	(997)
EBITDA	(12)	43	131	238	337
Depreciation & amortisation	(32)	(36)	(44)	(51)	(59)
EBIT	(44)	7	87	187	278
Net interest	(14)	(15)	(19)	(14)	(6)
Profit before tax	(58)	(9)	68	174	272
Taxation (27%, net of assessed loss)	-0	-0	(4)	(44)	(73)
Net profit / (loss) after tax	(58)	(9)	64	130	199

Memo — EBITDA margin (statutory): 2027 -6.5% | 2028 9.2% | 2029 16.8% | 2030 22.1% | 2031 25.3%

Figure 15. *Statutory revenue, EBITDA and net profit; two funded ramp-loss years give way to strong profitability from FY2029.*

Figure 16. *FY2031 statutory P&L waterfall from revenue to net profit after tax.*

Analyst flagTwo funded loss years before the profit inflection

The Company records a net loss of (58)m in FY2027 and (9)m in FY2028, turning profitable from FY2029 as high-margin royalty, property and rebate income scale and assessed losses shelter early taxable profit. Investors must fund a genuine J-curve: committed (not merely pledged) equity at financial close is essential, since the FY2027–FY2028 losses are absorbed before the network reaches self-funding.

Projected balance sheet

R millions	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031
Property, plant & equipment	329	368	387	393	392
Cash & equivalents	45	15	36	66	151
Debt-service reserve account	25	25	25	25	25
Total assets	399	408	448	484	568
Senior debt	150	150	120	90	60
Working-capital facility	0	12	12	0	0
Net trade payables	4	9	16	22	27
Share capital	350	350	350	350	350
Retained earnings / (deficit)	(105)	(113)	(49)	22	131
Total liabilities & equity	399	408	448	484	568

Balance-sheet integrity check — assets less (liabilities + equity): 2027 0.00 | 2028 0.00 | 2029 0.00 | 2030 0.00 | 2031 0.00 (ties to zero every year).

Figure 17. *Balance-sheet evolution; assets (left) equal liabilities plus equity (right) in every year.*

Projected cash-flow statement

R millions	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031
Net profit / (loss) after tax	(58)	(9)	64	130	199
add: depreciation & amortisation	32	36	44	51	59
(increase) / decrease in working capital	4	6	6	6	5
Cash flow from operations	(22)	33	114	187	262
Capital expenditure	(3)	(75)	(63)	(57)	(58)
Free cash flow	(25)	(42)	51	130	205
Senior debt repayment	-0	-0	(30)	(30)	(30)
Dividends paid	-0	-0	-0	(59)	(89)
Net revolver movement	0	12	0	(12)	0
Net cash flow	(25)	(30)	21	30	85
Closing cash balance	45	15	36	66	151

Figure 18. *Liquidity profile; the operating cash balance remains positive throughout, supported by the DSRA.*

Observations on the projected financials

Three features of the projected statements warrant emphasis for credit and equity assessment. First, the profit trajectory is a genuine J-curve: two funded loss years give way to a sharp inflection from FY2029 as high-margin royalty, property and rebate income scales faster than the associated cost base. The quality of earnings therefore improves markedly with scale, the mature business is a franchisor-plus-property platform, not a capital-intensive restaurant operator.

Second, the balance sheet remains conservatively geared throughout. Senior debt peaks at close and amortises steadily, while retained earnings rebuild the equity base from FY2029. Net leverage at exit is low, which enhances equity value on the terminal enterprise value and provides refinancing headroom should the Company elect to fund further growth with debt rather than equity.

Third, cash generation is back-ended but never negative on a closing-balance basis. The operating cash balance troughs at approximately R15m in FY2028, the tightest point in the plan, before building strongly as the network matures. This trough, coupled with the FY2028 DSCR at the covenant boundary (Section 23), identifies FY2028 as the single most important year to monitor, and is the principal reason the structure carries a funded debt-service reserve and an undrawn revolving facility.