Commercial yield, FY2031

34 t/ha

30.6 to 37.4 t/ha (±10%)

R10.5m of FY2031 EBITDA. Range reflects the observed spread between competent and excellent irrigated ginger management in Limpopo.

Crop loss to disease

8% of planted area

5% to 15%

From +3.42 to (7.99). Range reflects grower experience from well-managed virgin land to established ginger ground.

Fresh price, FY2031

R25.00/kg

R22.50 to R27.50 (±10%)

±R6.1m. Range reflects the domestic band excluding shortage-period spikes.

Certified seed price, FY2031

R76.00/kg

R60.80 to R91.20 (±20%)

±R4.1m. Wider range tested because no established domestic reference price exists.

Field cost, FY2031

R245,000/ha

±10%

±R2.9m. Range reflects fertiliser and energy price volatility.

Marketable share

88%

84% to 92%

Not separately tested; a one-point movement is worth roughly R0.5m at FY2031 volumes.

Land lease rate

R15,000/ha controlled

R12,000 to R18,000

Not separately tested. At R18,000 the FY2031 land cost rises by roughly R1.5m gross.

Overheads, FY2031

R13.4m

±15%

Not separately tested; ±R2.0m direct to EBITDA.

Capital expenditure

R42.6m

±15%

Affects depreciation, funding requirement and terminal value rather than EBITDA.

Interest rates

11.5% term, 13.75% facility

+300bp

No EBITDA effect; R1.3m of FY2031 profit after tax.

WACC

17.5%

15.5% to 17.5% to 19.5%

Enterprise value today of 57.99 to 38.30 to 24.88 R million.

Exit multiple

5.25x

4.00x to 5.25x to 6.50x

Investor MOIC of 1.91x to 2.45x to 3.00x.

Supplier credit share

45% of field cost

30% to 55%

Affects the seasonal facility peak rather than EBITDA. At 30% the FY2031 peak rises materially.

Collection timing

55% in month of sale

45% to 65%

Affects the debtor book and year-end cash rather than EBITDA.

Rotation cycle

4.5 years

4 to 5 years

At 5 years the FY2031 controlled footprint rises to 560 hectares and gross lease by roughly R0.8m.