Lumina Specialist Hospital — Exit Strategy
The exit strategy and value-realisation pathways — strategic trade sale, secondary buyout and the Year-7 exit — the projected returns including the 3.0× MOIC, and the exit valuation.
Section 15 · Business Plan
Exit Strategy
The exit strategy and value-realisation pathways — strategic trade sale, secondary buyout and the Year-7 exit — the projected returns including the 3.0× MOIC, and the exit valuation.
The base case assumes an equity exit at the end of Year 7, by which
time the hospital is stabilised, profitable and deleveraging — the
profile most attractive to acquirers and the point at which value is
crystallised.
15.1 Exit routes
- Trade sale to a hospital group (base case). Sale
to one of the established groups or a regional consolidator seeking a
stabilised specialist asset in an under-served province — the most
likely and value-maximising route. - Sale to a healthcare / infrastructure fund.
Long-dated capital attracted by the annuity characteristics of dialysis
and oncology and the freehold asset base. - Recapitalisation / partial realisation.
Refinancing or secondary sale allowing early investors to realise while
retaining upside. - Strategic-partner buy-up. The strategic
operating partner increasing its stake at a pre-agreed
mechanism.
15.2 Valuation & timing
At an 8.0x EBITDA multiple on Year-7 EBITDA of R165m, the implied
enterprise value is R1,317m; after net debt of R522m and cash, the
implied equity value is approximately R870m. The 8.0x assumption is
below multiples historically paid for scaled, listed hospital platforms
but appropriate for a single, recently stabilised asset; it should be
stress-tested in any investment decision.
The exit is the principal driver of equity returns and is exposed to
multiple compression, timing risk and the state of M&A appetite
(itself sensitive to the NHI trajectory). A one-turn reduction in the
exit multiple, or a two-year delay, materially reduces equity IRR. The
exit assumption should be regarded as illustrative rather than committed
value.
Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of Lumina Health Holdings (Pty) Ltd.