Appendix A — Revenue by value-chain layer (US$ m)
Years 1–5.
|
Layer |
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 4 |
Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Fuel sales |
13 |
30.8 |
64.40 |
110.100 |
161.5000 |
|
Chemicals |
6 |
15.5 |
34.10 |
61.600 |
95.2000 |
|
Fertilisers |
5 |
13.4 |
28.40 |
49.500 |
73.7000 |
|
Energy services & LPG |
4 |
8.7 |
18.10 |
30.800 |
44.8000 |
|
Exports |
2 |
6.5 |
14.90 |
28.000 |
44.8000 |
|
Total |
30 |
75.0 |
160.00 |
280.000 |
420.0000 |
Years 6–10.
|
Layer |
Year 6 |
Year 7 |
Year 8 |
Year 9 |
Year 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Fuel sales |
225 |
300.7 |
375.70 |
453.600 |
544.0000 |
|
Chemicals |
140 |
196.8 |
259.00 |
329.300 |
416.0000 |
|
Fertilisers |
105 |
142.1 |
180.80 |
222.400 |
272.0000 |
|
Energy services & LPG |
62 |
82.0 |
101.50 |
121.300 |
144.0000 |
|
Exports |
68 |
98.4 |
133.00 |
173.300 |
224.0000 |
|
Total |
600 |
820.0 |
1,050.00 |
1,300.000 |
1,600.0000 |
Appendix B — Full income statement (US$ m)
Years 1–5.
|
US$ m |
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 4 |
Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Revenue |
30 |
75.0 |
160.00 |
280.000 |
420.0000 |
|
Operating costs |
(27) |
(65) |
(131) |
(218) |
(315) |
|
EBITDA |
3 |
10.5 |
28.80 |
61.600 |
105.0000 |
|
Depreciation |
(17) |
(32) |
(46) |
(59) |
(73) |
|
EBIT |
(14) |
(21) |
(17) |
3 |
32 |
|
Interest — senior (DFI+ECA) |
(9) |
(23) |
(32) |
(36) |
(33) |
|
Interest — Phase-3 debt |
(0) |
(0) |
(0) |
(0) |
(6) |
|
Interest — WC |
(0) |
(0) |
(0) |
(0) |
(9) |
|
Interest income |
0 |
3.7 |
4.90 |
3.500 |
0.0000 |
|
Profit before tax |
(23) |
(41) |
(44) |
(30) |
(14) |
|
Tax |
(0) |
(0) |
(0) |
(0) |
(0) |
|
Net profit |
(23) |
(41) |
(44) |
(30) |
(14) |
Years 6–10.
|
US$ m |
Year 6 |
Year 7 |
Year 8 |
Year 9 |
Year 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Revenue |
600 |
820.0 |
1,050.00 |
1,300.000 |
1,600.0000 |
|
Operating costs |
(432) |
(574) |
(725) |
(884) |
(1,072) |
|
EBITDA |
168 |
246.0 |
325.50 |
416.000 |
528.0000 |
|
Depreciation |
(84) |
(96) |
(106) |
(116) |
(124) |
|
EBIT |
84 |
150 |
219 |
301 |
405 |
|
Interest — senior (DFI+ECA) |
(30) |
(27) |
(24) |
(21) |
(18) |
|
Interest — Phase-3 debt |
(16) |
(25) |
(31) |
(28) |
(24) |
|
Interest — WC |
(13) |
(11) |
(6) |
(6) |
(5) |
|
Interest income |
0 |
0.0 |
0.00 |
0.000 |
0.0000 |
|
Profit before tax |
25 |
87 |
159 |
245 |
358 |
|
Tax |
(0) |
(0) |
(32) |
(66) |
(97) |
|
Net profit |
25 |
87 |
127 |
179 |
261 |
Appendix C — Full balance sheet (US$ m)
Years 1–5.
|
US$ m |
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 4 |
Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Net PP&E |
203 |
362.8 |
499.50 |
614.600 |
718.3000 |
|
Inventory |
3 |
7.1 |
14.40 |
23.900 |
34.5000 |
|
Receivables |
4 |
9.2 |
19.70 |
34.500 |
51.8000 |
|
Cash |
131 |
166.1 |
126.40 |
25.000 |
25.0000 |
|
Total assets |
341 |
545.2 |
660.00 |
698.000 |
829.6000 |
|
Senior debt (DFI+ECA) |
200 |
320.0 |
400.00 |
366.700 |
333.4000 |
|
Phase-3 expansion debt |
0 |
0.0 |
0.00 |
0.000 |
120.0000 |
|
Working-capital facility |
0 |
0.0 |
0.00 |
89.500 |
135.6000 |
|
Payables |
3 |
6.7 |
13.70 |
22.700 |
32.8000 |
|
Deferred tax |
1 |
2.0 |
3.80 |
6.200 |
9.1000 |
|
Equity |
137 |
217 |
243 |
213 |
199 |
|
Balance check |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
Years 6–10.
|
US$ m |
Year 6 |
Year 7 |
Year 8 |
Year 9 |
Year 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Net PP&E |
783 |
839.7 |
869.20 |
873.200 |
853.7000 |
|
Inventory |
47 |
62.9 |
79.40 |
96.900 |
117.5000 |
|
Receivables |
74 |
101.1 |
129.50 |
160.300 |
197.3000 |
|
Cash |
25 |
25.0 |
25.00 |
25.000 |
66.3000 |
|
Total assets |
930 |
1,028.7 |
1,103.10 |
1,155.400 |
1,234.8000 |
|
Senior debt (DFI+ECA) |
300 |
266.8 |
233.50 |
200.200 |
166.9000 |
|
Phase-3 expansion debt |
230 |
310.0 |
306.20 |
262.400 |
218.6000 |
|
Working-capital facility |
118 |
64.7 |
67.70 |
50.700 |
0.0000 |
|
Payables |
45 |
59.8 |
75.40 |
92.000 |
111.6000 |
|
Deferred tax |
13 |
16.3 |
20.60 |
25.200 |
30.1000 |
|
Equity |
224 |
311 |
400 |
525 |
708 |
|
Balance check |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
Appendix D — Full cash-flow statement (US$ m)
Years 1–5.
|
US$ m |
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 4 |
Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Operating cash flow |
(9) |
(13) |
(7) |
17 |
44 |
|
Investing cash flow |
(220) |
(191) |
(182) |
(174) |
(176) |
|
Financing cash flow |
360 |
240 |
150 |
56 |
133 |
|
Net change in cash |
131 |
36 |
(40) |
(101) |
0 |
|
Unlevered FCF |
(217) |
(181) |
(154) |
(113) |
(71) |
|
Cumulative FCF |
(217) |
(398) |
(552) |
(664) |
(736) |
Years 6–10.
|
US$ m |
Year 6 |
Year 7 |
Year 8 |
Year 9 |
Year 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Operating cash flow |
90 |
159 |
208 |
267 |
351 |
|
Investing cash flow |
(149) |
(152) |
(136) |
(120) |
(104) |
|
Financing cash flow |
59 |
(7) |
(72) |
(148) |
(206) |
|
Net change in cash |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
41 |
|
Unlevered FCF |
19 |
94 |
157 |
230 |
327 |
|
Cumulative FCF |
(717) |
(623) |
(466) |
(235) |
92 |
Appendix E — Glossary
|
Term |
Definition |
|---|---|
|
CFADS |
Cash Flow Available for Debt Service |
|
DSCR |
Debt-Service Coverage Ratio |
|
DSRA |
Debt-Service Reserve Account |
|
EBITDA |
Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation & Amortisation |
|
GTL |
Gas-to-Liquids |
|
J-curve |
The early-negative, later-positive cash-flow profile of a capital build |
|
DFI / ECA |
Development-Finance Institution / Export Credit Agency |
|
LNG |
Liquefied Natural Gas |
|
SADC |
Southern African Development Community |
|
IRR / NPV |
Internal Rate of Return / Net Present Value |
NoteModel integrity statement
All figures in this Document derive from a single integrated ten-year three-statement model. The balance sheet reconciles to zero in every projection year; interest, tax and depreciation are internally consistent across the income statement, balance sheet and cash-flow statement. Sponsor revenue and EBITDA are preserved exactly; all lines below EBITDA — including the full net-profit path (the sponsor provides only stabilised Year 10, which our re-underwriting closely corroborates) — together with the capital, cash-flow, coverage and returns analysis, are independently derived on a conservative basis, with tax at 27% (the sponsor assumed 28%).
— End of Business Plan —