|
Line |
Assumption |
|---|---|
|
Revenue / EBITDA |
Sponsor headline, preserved exactly (not re-forecast) |
|
Cost of sales |
68%→65% of revenue, trending down with scale |
|
Operating expenses |
Derived residual reconciling gross profit to headline EBITDA |
|
Depreciation |
Per-asset straight-line; half-year convention in year of addition |
|
Capex phasing |
Grain 40/40/20; equipment 50/30/20; feed 20/50/30; etc. over Yrs 1–3 |
|
Maintenance capex |
2.5% of revenue in Years 4–5 |
|
Equity |
US$200m; drawn 55/30/15 over Years 1–3 |
|
Senior debt |
US$220m at 11.0%; 2-yr grace; straight-line amortisation thereafter |
|
Mezzanine |
US$80m at 15.0%; interest-only across the horizon |
|
Finance-book facility |
80% advance rate; 12.0% secured wholesale cost |
|
Revolving facility |
Tops cash to a US$10m floor; 12.0% cost; peak ~US$16m |
|
Finance book |
Grows to US$390m by Year 5 |
|
Working capital |
55 / 35 / 45 days for inventory / receivables / payables |
|
Taxation |
27% blended SA-weighted; assessed-loss carry-forward, 80% utilisation cap |
|
Exit |
EV/EBITDA 7.0x base (5.5x–9.0x range), Year-5 single exit |