Border closure or prolonged congestion at Kasumbalesa or Nakonde

High likelihood of episodes, moderate to severe impact

Queues at Kasumbalesa have been measured in days rather than hours often enough that planners treat them as a standing assumption. One extra dwell day a round trip costs US$0.24m a year at FY2031 scale. Pre-lodged documentation, bonded transit, agents at both posts, and the ability to reroute southbound volume

Northbound fill below plan

High likelihood if under-resourced, severe impact

The backhaul is 90% of what a loaded trip earns. At a 40% fill FY2031 EBITDA is US$0.98m against US$2.61m. A dedicated Dar es Salaam commercial function with its own targets

Debt service cover breach during the build phase

Moderate likelihood, severe impact

Cover is below 1.25 times until FY2030. Covenant relief negotiated at facility inception; board authority to halt fleet additions; a costed slow-growth budget maintained at all times

Corridor substitution by rail

Moderate likelihood, high impact over the horizon

TAZARA is under a US$1.4bn rehabilitation on this corridor and the Lobito Corridor has closed US$753m of financing with a stated 30% cost reduction target and a Zambian extension targeting 2 million tonnes a year by 2031. Road retains time-sensitive, part-load and last-mile cargo, but bulk concentrate is contestable

Freight rate correction

Moderate likelihood, high impact

A 15% fall takes FY2031 EBITDA to US$1.14m. Term contracts with committed tonnage; no more than 30% of southbound volume with any one customer; cost base kept variable where possible

Diesel price increase

Moderate to high likelihood, high impact

Fuel and shrinkage are 44% of variable cost. Fuel adjustment clauses where customers accept them; bulk purchase at controlled points; consumption management through telematics

Cargo theft or substitution in transit

High likelihood of attempts, moderate impact

Copper attracts organised theft including substitution of cathode with lower-value material during transit stops. Sealed and tracked loads, controlled stopping points, weight reconciliation at both ends, driver rotation

Fuel siphoning and reconciliation loss

High likelihood, moderate impact

Modelled falling from 5.5% to 2.8% of fuel. Tank-level sensing, fuel cards, route reconciliation, and consequences applied consistently

Driver shortage or industrial action

Moderate likelihood, moderate impact

Double-manning increases exposure. Above-market terms, structured rotation, in-house training pipeline, and a relief driver pool

Vehicle downtime above assumption

Moderate likelihood, high impact

Availability drives trips directly. In-house workshop, preventive schedules, parts inventory for a standardised fleet, and premium vehicle specification

Copper production interruption at a major customer

Moderate likelihood, moderate impact on volume

Customer diversification across mines and across both DRC and Zambian production; capacity redeployable to other cargo

Regulatory change to transit, axle load or permit regimes

Moderate likelihood, moderate impact on cost and dwell

Compliance function from FY2027; active membership of corridor and transporter associations; agent representation at both posts

Informal payment demands at border posts

High likelihood of demands, moderate impact on dwell

No facilitation payments budgeted. Documented policy, driver escalation route, and acceptance that dwell may occasionally be longer as a result

Before vehicle order

Southbound term contracts below a majority of first-year capacity

Do not order. The contract base underwrites the fleet and satisfies the financier

Before vehicle order

Northbound arrangements not written and the Dar es Salaam appointment not made

Do not order. A fleet delivered before the return-leg business exists runs at a fill rate in the forties

End of FY2028

Northbound fill below 60% or round trips below 1.7 a month

Stop taking delivery of vehicles and operate the existing fleet until both recover

Any covenant test

Debt service cover projected below the agreed relief level

Halt fleet additions. Board authority for this sits in the shareholders agreement

Monthly

Fuel shrinkage above the modelled rate for two consecutive months

Route-level reconciliation and driver accountability before the next contracting cycle

Any time

A single southbound customer above 30% of volume from FY2029

Accept rate dilution to diversify rather than concede the rate card at renewal

Any quarter

Availability below 90%

Workshop review before further vehicle deliveries. Availability drives trips directly