Copperfrontline Logistics Business Plan — Assumption Register
Every trip, rate, cost, fleet and funding assumption behind the model, and those most in need of verification.
Assumption Register
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- Overview & contents
- i. Important Notice and Basis of Preparation
- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. The Corridor
- 3. Operating Model
- 4. Commercial Model
- 5. Market and Competitive Position
- 6. SWOT and Strategic Response
- 7. Financial Projections
- 8. Capital Expenditure, Funding and the Balance Sheet
- 9. Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
- 10. Risk Analysis
- 11. Regulatory and Compliance
- 12. Organisation
- 13. Implementation Roadmap
- 14. Key Performance Indicators
- 15. Investor Returns and Recommendation
- 16. Assumption Register
- A. Appendix A: Consolidated Financial Summary
- B. Appendix B: Round Trip and Fleet Schedules
- C. Appendix C: Funding, Debt Service and Balance Sheet Schedules
- D. Appendix D: Risk Register
- E. Appendix E: Glossary
Every material assumption underlying the model is listed below. Figures are stated on an FY2027 basis unless otherwise noted.
|
Assumption |
Value |
Basis and sensitivity |
|---|---|---|
|
Round trip distance |
5 200 km |
Kolwezi or Lubumbashi to Dar es Salaam and return |
|
Round trips per truck per month |
1.55 rising to 2.05 |
The primary productivity metric. One extra dwell day costs US$0.24m a year |
|
Fleet availability |
92% rising to 94% |
Premium specification with in-house maintenance. Drives trips directly |
|
Payload |
32 tonnes each way |
Within the most restrictive axle-load regime on the route |
|
Southbound rate |
US$185 a tonne falling to US$174 |
Held declining in nominal terms. High sensitivity |
|
Northbound rate |
US$140 a tonne falling to US$133 |
Mixed contracted and spot |
|
Northbound fill rate |
62% rising to 78% |
The difference between viability and loss. See Section 9.2 |
|
Fuel consumption |
2.90 km/l laden, 4.05 km/l empty |
Premium specification. Largest single cost driver |
|
Diesel price |
US$1.32 a litre rising to US$1.36 |
Blended across three jurisdictions. Unhedged |
|
Fuel shrinkage |
5.5% falling to 2.8% |
An assumption about management, not about the market |
|
Transit fees and tolls |
US$660 a round trip rising to US$750 |
Three jurisdictions. Outside company control and escalating faster than inflation |
|
Cargo loss net of recovery |
US$130 a round trip rising to US$150 |
Copper attracts organised theft and substitution |
|
Vehicle cost |
US$195 000 delivered |
Premium tractor and trailer. See Section 3.1 |
|
Asset finance |
75% at 13.0% over 6 years |
Deposit of 25% funded from equity |
|
Term facility |
US$0.9m at 11.5% |
Depot, workshop and secure yard at Kitwe |
|
Vehicle life and residual |
8 years, 30% residual |
Debt amortises in 6. The mismatch is the return story |
|
Receivable days |
55 days |
Mining house and trader terms. Costs are settled in cash |
|
Corporate tax |
30% with losses carried forward |
Zambian corporate rate. No tax falls within the five-year projection |
|
Replacement provision in the harvest years |
US$0.72m a year |
Sustains a flat fleet of 54 vehicles from FY2032 |
|
Exit multiple |
4.5x EBITDA at year five, 5.0x at year eight |
Tested from 3.5x to 6.5x and 4.0x to 7.0x at Section 15 |
16.1 Where the plan is deliberately conservative
|
Assumption |
Treated in the base case as |
What is left on the table |
|---|---|---|
|
Freight rates |
Declining in nominal terms on both legs across five years |
No inflation pass-through at all. Southbound falls from US$185 to US$174 a tonne |
|
Northbound fill |
Reaching 78% at FY2031, not higher |
At 90% fill FY2031 EBITDA is US$3.12m against US$2.61m at plan |
|
Vehicle residual |
30% released evenly over eight years on both specifications |
A less flattering treatment of the premium unit than a realised resale value would give |
|
Round trips per truck |
2.05 a month at maturity |
Operators on shorter corridors achieve more. This is a conservative reading of a hard route |
|
Fuel shrinkage |
2.8% at FY2031, not lower |
Full elimination is not assumed, and would be worth a further US$0.05m |
|
Harvest EBITDA |
Declining from US$2.57m to US$2.46m as the fleet ages |
No rate growth and no productivity gain assumed in the harvest years at all |
None of these is included in the base case and none should be relied on. They are listed because a reader comparing this plan against a more optimistic one should know which direction the conservatism runs. The freight rate path is the most consequential: holding rates declining in nominal terms across eight years, in a business where a ten per cent rate movement is worth US$0.98m of FY2031 EBITDA, is a deliberately unhelpful assumption to have made.