North West Agri Feeds Business Plan — Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
What moves the outcome: raw material cost, volume, selling price and plant utilisation, with scenarios.
Section 22 of 26
Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
Jump to section
- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. Investment Thesis
- 3. Company and Business Overview
- 4. Problem, Customer Need and Value Proposition
- 5. Industry Analysis
- 6. Market Analysis
- 7. Competitive Landscape
- 8. Business Model
- 9. Products and Services
- 10. Go-to-Market Strategy
- 11. Operating Model
- 12. Management and Organisation
- 13. Strategic Plan
- 14. SWOT Analysis
- 15. Risk Analysis
- 16. ESG and Sustainability
- 17. Implementation Roadmap
- 18. Financial Plan
- 19. Capital Expenditure and Working Capital
- 20. Funding Requirement and Structure
- 21. Investment Case and Returns
- 22. Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
- 23. KPIs and Management Dashboard
- 24. Long-Term Growth Strategy
- 25. Conclusion
- 26. Appendices
A thin-margin business is, by definition, sensitive to its drivers. The scenarios below are constructed to be individually plausible, not aggregations of worst or best cases, and the downside is disclosed with the same prominence as the base case.
Scenario analysis
Table 15. Scenario definitions and outcomes
|
Scenario |
Assumptions |
Y3 EBITDA |
Y5 EBITDA |
Y5 DSCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Downside |
−6% price, +5% cost, −10pt utilisation |
(9) |
(6) |
-0.60 |
|
Base |
As modelled |
7 |
20 |
1.33 |
|
Upside |
+4% price, −3% cost, +7pt utilisation |
20 |
41 |
2.35 |
Sensitivity: what moves the needle
The grid is steeply tilted, which carries the key management lesson: because ingredients pass through, it is pricing power and procurement discipline, not volume alone, that determine whether the plant makes money. A 4% price move swings Year 3 EBITDA by roughly R5–6 million. The pass-through pricing mechanism is therefore the most important operational control in the business.