North West Agri Feeds Business Plan — Financial Plan
Five-year projections: revenue to R228.0m, gross margin reaching 20.0% and EBITDA of R20.4m.
Section 18 of 26
Financial Plan
Jump to section
- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. Investment Thesis
- 3. Company and Business Overview
- 4. Problem, Customer Need and Value Proposition
- 5. Industry Analysis
- 6. Market Analysis
- 7. Competitive Landscape
- 8. Business Model
- 9. Products and Services
- 10. Go-to-Market Strategy
- 11. Operating Model
- 12. Management and Organisation
- 13. Strategic Plan
- 14. SWOT Analysis
- 15. Risk Analysis
- 16. ESG and Sustainability
- 17. Implementation Roadmap
- 18. Financial Plan
- 19. Capital Expenditure and Working Capital
- 20. Funding Requirement and Structure
- 21. Investment Case and Returns
- 22. Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
- 23. KPIs and Management Dashboard
- 24. Long-Term Growth Strategy
- 25. Conclusion
- 26. Appendices
The financial plan is built as a fully integrated three-statement model, income statement, balance sheet and cash flow, driven from operational assumptions (tonnes, prices, ingredient costs, working-capital days and financing terms) rather than from arbitrary growth rates. The statements reconcile: the balance sheet balances in every period, cash flow ties to the balance-sheet cash line, and debt and retained earnings roll forward correctly.
Key modelling assumptions
|
Assumption |
Basis |
|---|---|
|
Plant capacity |
10 t/h; single-shift nameplate ~20,000 t/yr; extended hours to ~40,500 t/yr by Year 5 |
|
Utilisation of available hours |
55% → 65% across the plan (disciplined, with headroom) |
|
Average selling price |
R6,803/t (Y1) rising to R8,660/t, mix- and inflation-driven |
|
Ingredient cost |
2026 SA prices: maize ~R3,550/t, soybean meal ~R8,600/t; ~83% of COGS |
|
General inflation |
5% p.a. on prices and costs from Year 2 |
|
Corporate tax |
27%, with assessed-loss carry-forward and 80% utilisation cap |
|
Senior debt |
Prime + 1.75%; 7-year tenor; 2-year capital moratorium |
|
Asset finance |
Prime + 2.5%; 5-year amortising |
|
Working-capital RCF |
Prime + 3.0%; revolving, sized to net working capital |
|
Discount rate (DCF) |
15.0% blended WACC (structure-derived; range 13.6–16.2%) |
|
Exit assumption |
6.5x Year 5 EBITDA (SA agri-processing range 6–8x) |
Projected income statement
Table 7. Projected income statement (base case, R’000)
|
R’000 |
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 4 |
Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Revenue |
74,829 |
103,618 |
138,196 |
178,309 |
227,987 |
|
Cost of sales |
(63,415) |
(86,285) |
(112,103) |
(143,682) |
(182,492) |
|
Gross profit |
11,414 |
17,333 |
26,093 |
34,627 |
45,496 |
|
Gross margin |
15.3% |
16.7% |
18.9% |
19.4% |
20.0% |
|
Operating expenses |
(14,645) |
(16,828) |
(19,255) |
(21,994) |
(25,120) |
|
EBITDA |
(3,231) |
505 |
6,838 |
12,633 |
20,375 |
|
EBITDA margin |
-4.3% |
0.5% |
5.0% |
7.1% |
8.9% |
|
Depreciation |
(7,481) |
(7,601) |
(7,751) |
(7,931) |
(8,141) |
|
EBIT |
(10,713) |
(7,097) |
(914) |
4,702 |
12,234 |
|
Finance costs |
(6,163) |
(6,082) |
(6,059) |
(5,375) |
(4,576) |
|
Profit before tax |
(16,875) |
(13,178) |
(6,973) |
(674) |
7,658 |
|
Tax |
(0) |
(0) |
(0) |
(0) |
(414) |
|
Net profit after tax |
(16,875) |
(13,178) |
(6,973) |
(674) |
7,244 |
|
Net margin |
-22.6% |
-12.7% |
-5.1% |
-0.4% |
3.2% |
Projected balance sheet
Table 8. Projected balance sheet (base case, R’000)
|
R’000 |
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 4 |
Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Non-current assets (NBV) |
83,894 |
77,493 |
71,241 |
65,110 |
59,069 |
|
Inventory |
6,950 |
8,983 |
11,057 |
13,778 |
16,999 |
|
Trade & other receivables |
9,225 |
12,775 |
15,902 |
19,541 |
23,736 |
|
Cash & equivalents |
23,088 |
13,104 |
4,365 |
602 |
3,087 |
|
Total assets |
123,157 |
112,355 |
102,565 |
99,031 |
102,891 |
|
Trade & other payables |
5,212 |
7,565 |
10,442 |
13,778 |
17,999 |
|
Senior term debt |
32,000 |
32,000 |
27,013 |
21,402 |
15,090 |
|
Asset finance |
8,532 |
6,779 |
4,794 |
2,546 |
0 |
|
Working-capital RCF |
6,030 |
7,806 |
9,084 |
10,747 |
12,000 |
|
Total liabilities |
51,774 |
54,150 |
51,333 |
48,473 |
45,089 |
|
Share capital |
88,258 |
88,258 |
88,258 |
88,258 |
88,258 |
|
Retained earnings |
(16,875) |
(30,054) |
(37,027) |
(37,700) |
(30,456) |
|
Total equity |
71,383 |
58,204 |
51,231 |
50,558 |
57,802 |
|
Total equity & liabilities |
123,157 |
112,355 |
102,565 |
99,031 |
102,891 |
Projected cash flow statement
Table 9. Projected cash flow (base case, R’000)
|
R’000 |
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 4 |
Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
EBITDA |
(3,231) |
505 |
6,838 |
12,633 |
20,375 |
|
Working-capital movement |
-0 |
(3,230) |
(2,323) |
(3,024) |
(3,195) |
|
Tax paid |
-0 |
-0 |
-0 |
-0 |
(414) |
|
Operating cash flow |
(3,231) |
(2,726) |
4,515 |
9,608 |
16,767 |
|
Maintenance capex |
0 |
(1,200) |
(1,500) |
(1,800) |
(2,100) |
|
Investing cash flow |
0 |
(1,200) |
(1,500) |
(1,800) |
(2,100) |
|
Interest paid |
(6,163) |
(6,082) |
(6,059) |
(5,375) |
(4,576) |
|
Debt repayment |
(1,548) |
(1,753) |
(6,972) |
(7,859) |
(8,858) |
|
RCF movement |
30 |
1,777 |
1,278 |
1,663 |
1,253 |
|
Financing cash flow |
(7,681) |
(6,058) |
(11,754) |
(11,571) |
(12,182) |
|
Net cash movement |
(10,912) |
(9,984) |
(8,740) |
(3,762) |
2,485 |
|
Opening cash |
34,000 |
23,088 |
13,104 |
4,365 |
602 |
|
Closing cash |
23,088 |
13,104 |
4,365 |
602 |
3,087 |
